Survey of Electors following the December 3, 2018, By-election in Leeds–Grenville–Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes (Ontario)

Catalogue Number: SE3-104/2019E-PDF

International Standard Book Number (ISBN): 978-0-660-30651-3

POR Number: 081-18

Contract Number: 05005-180128-001-CY

Contract Award Date: 2018-11-28

Date of Submission: 2019-05-23

Ce rapport est aussi disponible en français.

Executive Summary

Elections Canada commissioned Phoenix Strategic Perspectives Inc. (Phoenix SPI) to conduct research to help evaluate the December 3, 2018, federal by-election in the electoral district of Leeds–Grenville–Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes, Ontario.

Background and Objectives

Elections Canada (EC) is an independent, non-partisan agency that reports directly to Parliament. The agency is mandated to conduct federal general elections, by-elections and referendums, administer the political financing provisions of the Canada Elections Act (CEA) and monitor compliance with enforce electoral legislation.

As part of its evaluation program, the agency wanted to conduct a survey of eligible electors in the electoral district of Leeds–Grenville–Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes, Ontario, where a by-election was held on December 3, 2018. The purpose of the survey was to obtain reliable survey data to evaluate electors' opinions, attitudes and knowledge of the agency's services and various aspects of their experience.

The research objectives were to measure electors' opinions on various election-related issues. More specifically, the survey aimed to assess the following aspects:

The results will be used to assist in evaluating and refining Elections Canada's programs and services to the electorate. They may also help in developing the Chief Electoral Officer's reports to Parliament.

Methodology

A 12-minute random digit dial telephone survey was conducted with 400 eligible electors. Eligible electors were Canadian citizens, at least 18 years of age on polling day (December 3, 2018), who were residents of the electoral district (i.e., had an address of ordinary residence in the electoral district) from the first day of the by-election period until election day.

An overlapping dual-frame (landline and cell phone) sample was used to minimize coverage error, with 80% of dialling done on cell phone numbers and 20% of dialling done on landline phones. Those who declined to participate in the survey when contacted by telephone were offered the possibility of completing the survey through an online self-administered questionnaire instead of a phone interview. Five respondents chose to participate using the online questionnaire, however, none of these respondents completed the online survey. As a result, all completed surveys were conducted over the phone.

The survey data was weighted to accurately reflect the age and gender distribution of eligible electors. The data collection was conducted December 4 to 18, 2018. Based on a sample of this size, the results can be considered accurate to within ±4.9%, 19 times out of 20. For a more complete description of the methodology, refer to Annex 1.

Key Findings

  1. Awareness of By-election and Voter Information
  2. Voter Information Card (VIC) and Registration
  3. Voting and Voter Participation
  4. Voter Identification
  5. Voter Experience
  6. Fairness and Trust

Notes to Readers

The contract value was $35,627.88 (including HST).

I hereby certify as a Senior Officer of Phoenix SPI that the deliverables fully comply with the Government of Canada political neutrality requirements outlined in the Communications Policy of the Government of Canada and the Procedures for Planning and Contracting Public Opinion Research. Specifically, the deliverables do not contain any reference to electoral voting intentions, political party preferences, standings with the electorate, or ratings of the performance of a political party or its leader.

Alethea Woods

President

Phoenix Strategic Perspectives Inc.