Executive Summary, Survey of electors following the June 19, 2023, by-election in the districts of Winnipeg South Centre, Portage-Lisgar, Oxford, and Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount and the July 24, 2023, by-election in the district of Calgary Heritage

Prepared for Elections Canada

Supplier Name: Phoenix SPI
Contract Number: 05005-210330/001/CY
Contract Value: $187,030.03 (including HST)*
Award Date: 2021-09-23
Delivery Date: 2023-11-03
* This survey wave accounted for $141,279.81 of that cost (including HST).

Registration Number: POR 033-21

For more information on this report, contact Elections Canada at: rop-por@elections.ca

This public opinion research report presents the results of a survey conducted to help evaluate the June 19, 2023, federal by-elections in the electoral districts of Winnipeg South Centre, PortageLisgar, Oxford, and Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount, and the July 24, 2023, federal by-election in the district of Calgary Heritage. In total, 2,012 surveys were completed in two waves of data collection: June 20 to July 12, 2023 (following the June 19 by-elections), and July 25 to August 8, 2023 (following the July 24 by-election).

This publication may be reproduced for non-commercial purposes only. Prior written permission must be obtained from Elections Canada. For more information on this report, contact Elections Canada at: rop-por@elections.ca.

 

Elections Canada (EC) is an independent, non-partisan agency responsible for conducting Canadian federal general elections, by-elections, and referendums. Phoenix Strategic Perspectives Inc. (Phoenix SPI) conducted a survey of eligible electors on behalf of EC following the federal by-elections held on June 19, 2023, and July 24, 2023. Federal by-elections were held in the ridings of Winnipeg South Centre, Portage-Lisgar, Oxford, and Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount on June 19, and in the riding of Calgary Heritage on July 24. Eligible electors were Canadian citizens, at least 18 years of age on polling day, who were residents of the electoral district (i.e., had an address of ordinary residence in the electoral district) from the first day of the by-election period until election day.

  1. Research Purpose and Objectives

    The purpose of the survey was to obtain reliable survey data to evaluate electors' opinions, attitudes and knowledge of the agency's services and various aspects of their experience. The objectives were to measure electors' opinions on various election-related issues and to assist in evaluating and refining Elections Canada's programs and services to the electorate. The results will be used to assist in evaluating and refining Elections Canada's programs and services to the electorate. They may also be used to help develop the Chief Electoral Officer's reports to Parliament.

  2. Summary of Key Findings

    Awareness of by-election and knowledge of electoral process

    Voting option message testing

    Voting information and registration

    Voter participation

    Polling place experience

    Voter identification

    Satisfaction with voting experience

    Fairness of the by-election and trust in the results

  3. Methodology

    A random digit dial (RDD) telephone survey was conducted with 2,012 eligible electors, approximately 400 in each electoral district. The data collection took place in two waves: June 20 to July 12, 2023 (following the June 19 by-elections), and July 25 to August 8, 2023 (following the July 24 by-election). An overlapping dual-frame (landline and wireless) sample was used to minimize coverage error. Those who declined to participate in the survey when contacted by telephone were offered the option of completing the survey through an online self-administered questionnaire. Eighty-nine (n=89) electors completed the survey online; the rest did so over the telephone. Based on a sample of this size, the overall results would have a maximum margin of error of ±2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The results for each electoral district would have a maximum margin of error of ±4.9%, 19 times out of 20. Maximum margins of error for subsamples would be larger. For a more complete description of the methodology, refer to Annex 1.

  4. Political Neutrality Certification

    I hereby certify as a Senior Officer of Phoenix SPI that the deliverables fully comply with the Government of Canada political neutrality requirements outlined in the Communications Policy of the Government of Canada and the Procedures for Planning and Contracting Public Opinion Research. Specifically, the deliverables do not contain any reference to electoral voting intentions, political party preferences, standings with the electorate, or ratings of the performance of a political party or its leader.

    Alethea Woods
    President
    Phoenix Strategic Perspectives Inc.

  5. Contract Value

    The contract value was $187,030.03; this survey wave accounted for $141,279.81 of that cost (including HST).

Footnotes

1 Self-reported voter turnout is historically overreported in public opinion surveys. In this survey, self-reported turnout was 74%, while the turnout rate across all by-elections among registered electors was 36%. Two factors may be responsible for the overrepresentation of voters: 1) people who vote may be more likely than non-voters to participate in a study about voting (response bias), and 2) people who did not vote may report that they voted to present themselves in a more positive light (social desirability bias).