Research purpose and objectives
The purpose of the survey was to obtain reliable survey data to evaluate electors' opinions, attitudes, and knowledge of the agency's services and various aspects of their experience. The objectives were to measure electors' opinions on various election-related issues and to assist in evaluating and refining Elections Canada's programs and services to the electorate. The results will be used to assist in evaluating and refining Elections Canada's programs and services to the electorate. They may also be used to help develop the Chief Electoral Officer's reports to Parliament.
Summary of key findings
Awareness of by-election and knowledge of electoral process
- More than nine in 10 electors (94%) said they were aware that a federal by-election took place in the Ontario riding of Toronto–St. Paul's.
- Approximately three-quarters (74%) of respondents knew that electors could register at the polling place on election day and then vote immediately after. A smaller majority (61%) were aware that electors can check, update, or complete their voter registration on Elections Canada's website.
- When asked to identify the current ways to vote in a federal election, respondents were generally aware of the main voting methods. Most (83%) identified voting in person at a polling station on election day, followed by voting at advance polls in person (74%) and voting by mail (60%).
Aided recall of EC advertising and communications
- A large majority of electors (87%) who were aware of the federal by-election reported receiving their Voter Information Card (VIC).
- Fifty-five percent of electors who were aware of the by-election saw or heard advertising from Elections Canada about where, when and how to vote in at least one medium or format. Specifically, two in 10 each recalled advertising on social media (20%) or when browsing websites or on a mobile application (20%), while 17% heard advertising from EC on the radio or an audio platform, and 15% recalled seeing advertising from EC in a local newspaper.
- Most electors (91%) aware of the by-election felt informed about when, where, and how they could vote, with 75% saying they felt very informed and 16% saying they felt somewhat informed.
Voter registration
- Relatively few electors took action to confirm their voter registration. Nineteen percent checked to ensure they were registered, while 4% had recently registered to vote and 2% updated their registration information.
- Among those who confirmed their voter registration, a variety of actions were taken: 44% made sure their Voter Information Card (VIC) was correct, 26% used Elections Canada's online voter registration system, and 13% contacted Elections Canada through the website.
Voter participation
- Three-quarters (76%) of electors aware of the Toronto–St. Paul's by-election reported voting in it.1
- Among respondents who did not vote in the by-election, the primary reasons were political (38%) and everyday or health-related issues (35%). Approximately two in 10 (19%) did not vote for reasons related to the electoral process.
- Sixty-two percent of electors reported voting on election day at a polling station, while 35% said they voted at an advance polling station. Very few mentioned voting by mail or at a local Elections Canada office.
Experience at the polling place
- Nearly a third (32%) of those who voted in person (n=299) reported doing so in the morning between 8:00 a.m. and noon. The remaining voters were evenly split between voting in the afternoon between noon and 4:00 p.m. (31%) and in the evening between 4:00 p.m. and the close of polls (32%).
- Among those who voted in person (n=299), 48% said it took five minutes or less to travel to the polling place, while 33% reported it took between six and 10 minutes. Nineteen percent said it took more than 10 minutes to reach the polling place. Those who voted at a polling station on election day (57%) were more likely than those who voted at an advance polling station (32%) to say it took them five minutes or less to travel to the polling place.
- Ninety-five percent said the distance to their polling station from home was at least somewhat reasonable, with 82% describing the distance as very reasonable.
- Half (53%) of those who voted in the by-election said it took them five minutes or less to vote, with most others (29%) reporting that it took between six and 10 minutes. Seventeen percent reported taking more than 10 minutes to vote once they arrived at the facility. There were no significant differences in the time it took to vote on election day or at an advance poll.
- The vast majority (97%) of those who voted at a polling station, advance polling station, or local Elections Canada office found the building to be at least somewhat suitable, with 87% describing it as very suitable.
- The vast majority (94%) of voters said the amount of time it took to vote once they arrived at the voting facility was reasonable.
Voter identification
- Among electors who received their VIC and voted in person, most (96%) brought their VIC with them to the voting location.
- Approximately nine in 10 (92%) who voted found it very easy to meet the identification requirements, with an additional 6% saying it was somewhat easy.
Satisfaction with voting experience
- The majority (77%) of those who said they voted in the by-election found it very easy overall to vote.
- When asked specifically about completing the paper ballot, three in 10 voters had difficulty completing the paper ballot. The main reason for having difficulty completing the paper ballot was the long list of candidates, which made it hard to find candidates (92%).2
- Among voters, there was widespread satisfaction with Elections Canada and with the overall voting experience: 98% were satisfied, with 83% being very satisfied with the services provided by Elections Canada staff. Ninety-three percent were satisfied with their overall voting experience, with 76% being very satisfied.
Fairness, trust and confidence in Elections Canada
- Most electors (84%) believe Elections Canada ran the by-election fairly, with 69% saying it was run very fairly; and the vast majority have confidence in Elections Canada (94%), with 62% having a great deal of confidence and 32% a fair amount of confidence in the agency.
- Trust in the accuracy of the election results was widespread (94%), with 73% reporting a very high level of trust and 21% a somewhat high level of trust.
Methodology
A telephone survey was conducted with 402 eligible electors in the Toronto–St. Paul's federal electoral district. The data collection took place from June 27 to July 11, 2024. An overlapping dual-frame (landline and wireless) sample was used to minimize coverage error. Those who declined to participate in the survey when contacted by telephone were offered the option of completing the survey through an online self-administered questionnaire. Forty-three (n=43) electors completed the survey online; the remaining 359 electors did so over the telephone. Based on a sample of this size, the overall results would have a maximum margin of error of ±4.9%, 19 times out of 20. Maximum margins of error for subsamples would be larger. For a more complete description of the methodology, refer to Annex 1.
Political neutrality certification
I hereby certify as a Senior Officer of Phoenix SPI that the deliverables fully comply with the Government of Canada political neutrality requirements outlined in the Communications Policy of the Government of Canada and the Procedures for Planning and Contracting Public Opinion Research. Specifically, the deliverables do not contain any reference to electoral voting intentions, political party preferences, standings with the electorate, or ratings of the performance of a political party or its leader.
Alethea Woods
President
Phoenix Strategic Perspectives Inc.
Contract value
The contract value was $137,369.13 (including HST); this survey wave accounted for $53,513.18 of that cost (including HST).