Supplier name: RIWI Corp.

POR Registration Number: 111-18

Contract Number: 35035-182211/001/CY

Contract Value: $24,814.80 including HST

Contract Award Date: January 23, 2019

Delivery Date: March 29, 2019

Public Opinion Research in Mexico:

Attitudes Towards Trade

Final Methodological Report

Prepared by:

RIWI Corp.

Prepared for:

Privy Council Office, Communications and Consultations,

Public Opinion Research

For more information on this report please email: Isabelle.Cote@pco-bcp.gc.ca

Permission to Reproduce

This publication may be reproduced for non-commercial purposes only. Prior written permission must be obtained from the Privy Council Office. For more information on this report, please contact: Isabelle.Cote@pco-bcp.gc.ca

Catalogue Number: CP22-178/2019E-PDF

International Standard Book Number (ISBN): 978-0-660-30275-1

Cette publication est aussi disponible en français sous le titre : Recherche sur l’opinion publique au Mexique : attitudes envers le commerce

RIWI Corp.

180 Bloor St. W, Suite 1000

Toronto, Ontario

M5S 2V6

416-205-9984

inquiry@riwi.com

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Background

Canada’s economy is built on trade, and the new Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) is a key component of Canada’s trading relationships. Moreover, the global trading system is under threat. Tariffs on manufactured goods and services are squeezing global supply chains. This has a direct impact on Canada.

This study examined a variety of topics involving Mexicans’ attitudes towards trade, notably: the positive and negative perceptions of trade relations with Canada and the USA; levels of support for the CUSMA; policy preferences; and attitudes toward broader challenges facing Mexican society.

Objectives

Intelligence gathered from this study will help the Privy Council Office (the Project Authority) understand the concerns and perceptions of the Mexican people (specifically those who have access to the Internet) vis-à-vis trade. Research in support of Canada’s trading relationships and the security issues surrounding them benefits Canadians. The data will also be used to draw some rough comparisons with Canadian opinion towards trade and security and to brief senior executives at the Privy Council Office (PCO).

Methodology

RIWI administered an online survey to a sample of the Mexican adult Internet-using population, randomly gathering sentiment data to inform the Government of Canada on key policies. The survey was administered using RIWI technology, which randomly intercepts Web users who access URLs that RIWI controls at that time. The survey was completed by 2,050 participants, during the period of February 20th, 2019 – February 24th, 2019.

RIWI weighted all data by age and sex based on the most recently available national census data, last updated in December 2013.

Weighted and unweighted data were made available to the Project Authority through the RIWI interactive dashboard. Calculations for weighting of data were made using Pearson’s chi-square statistic and the p-value for the hypothesis test of independence of the observed frequencies in the contingency table observed (from weighted cross tabulation). The expected frequencies were computed based on the marginal sums under the assumption of independence.

Due to the differences between the sampled Internet population and the general population in Mexico, this study cannot be extrapolated to the broader population of Mexico which includes non-Internet users. Furthermore, recognizing that RIWI’s methodology yields a non-probability sample, a margin of error cannot be calculated or used for this work.

Expenditure

RIWI’s services were provided to the Government of Canada at a rate of $24,814.80, inclusive of HST.

I hereby certify as Global Head, Citizen Engagement at RIWI Corp., that the deliverables of this study fully comply with the Government of Canada political neutrality requirements outlined in the Communications Policy of the Government of Canada and Procedures for Planning and Contracting Public Opinion Research. Specifically, the deliverables do not include information on electoral voting intentions, political party preferences, or standings with the electorate or ratings of the performance of a political party or its leaders.

Eric Meerkamper
Global Head, Citizen Engagement
RIWI Corp.

METHODOLOGY

Overview

RIWI collected a sample of 2,050 participants from the Mexican Internet-using population over the age of 18 to examine attitudes towards trade and broader challenges in order to put the trade issue into perspective. From February 20th, 2019 to February 24th, 2019, RIWI delivered anonymous surveys to random Web users who surfed online using the URL bar. When Web users randomly come across a website that RIWI owns or controls, RIWI invites these random, non-incentivized users, filtered through a series of proprietary algorithms, to participate in a language-appropriate survey. RIWI invites these random, non-incentivized users, filtered through a series of proprietary algorithms, to participate in a language-appropriate survey.

Margin of Error

Given that the RIWI population parameter is the Internet-using population; and, as per the standards created by ESOMAR/WAPOR: Guidelines on Opinion Polls and Published Surveys and American Association for Public Opinion Research, RIWI does not typically report the margin of error.

Non-Response Bias (Age and Sex)

When compared alongside other Mexican demographic data based on age and sex, the demographics of participants for this survey aligned with the demographics of past RIWI research and data of the Internet population in Mexico, and also showed differences when compared to the national census, which is to be expected from any Internet-based survey in Mexico. The demographic data (weighted data) numbers for age and sex were sourced from the United States Census Bureau’s International Data Base. Each of the tables below is based upon the total number of completed surveys – 2,050, which does not count incomplete surveys.

Age

Due to the fact that this survey was conducted online, it is natural and expected that there is a higher proportion of people who make up the younger age group categories when compared to the weighted data (see Figure 1).

Age	18-24	25-34	35-44	45-54	55-64	65+
Unweighted data	32%	27%	19%	12%	6%	3%
Weighted data	16%	21%	20%	19%	15%	9%

Figure 1. Source: RIWI (unweighted data), Mexican Census (weighted data)

Sex

This survey asked participants to identify their sex as a primary demographic indicator. Similar to the breakdown of age where young people make up more of the Internet population in Mexico, men make up more of the Internet population than women do. This is consistent with past RIWI work.

Sex	Female	Male
Unweighted data	36%	64%
Weighted data	52%	48%

Figure 2. Source: RIWI (unweighted data), Mexican Census (weighted data)

RIWI surveys are accessible to anyone within the target geographic area who has access to the Internet in some capacity. Participants do not need to own such a device, as public facilities offering access to the Internet are still able to randomly access a RIWI survey. If someone does not have access to an Internet-enabled device, they will not be able to access the survey.

Participation Rate

RIWI delivered 45,273 surveys across Mexico to the general population, counting only results of participants aged 18 and above. 7,538 people began the survey, answering the first question; and 2,050 completed surveys were collected, totalling a predicted 4.5% completion rate from exposure. The completion rate among those who began the survey was 27%. This is consistent with other RIWI work in Mexico.

Description of Survey Instrument

The survey instrument was a questionnaire, developed by the Project Authority and RIWI. It included 12 closed-ended questions. Of these, an individual participant received a set of 10 questions depending on how they responded to the question regarding their awareness of the CUSMA. The question order was randomized where appropriate to minimize question order bias.

All other information about the execution of the fieldwork that would be needed to replicate the research initiative.

This survey was completed using RIWI’s unique and proprietary survey methodology, invented by RIWI. In order to be replicated, RIWI technology would need to be used to capture a similar sized sample, using weighting data from the Mexican national census. Only RIWI is capable of replicating this survey, due to the patent on its technology.

Appendix A

Methodology and Sampling Details

RIWI delivers anonymous opt-in surveys to random Web users who are surfing online. When these users come across websites or pages that no longer exist and that RIWI controls at any given time, RIWI invites these random, non-incented users, filtered through a series of proprietary algorithms, to participate in a language-appropriate survey. RIWI’s proprietary global routing technology presents millions of registered, non-trademarked rotating websites to people who stumble upon these sites when they bypass search and use the URL bar to browse the Web, or access these websites in any way. These sites cover a multitude of sectors and interests ensuring a random spread of individuals from different backgrounds and lifestyles. This diverse pool of domains ensures a randomized sample for intercept. comScore, a U.S. Web analytics company that measures and evaluates Internet usage, has independently confirmed this.

RIWI survey-takers are always randomly selected, since, by definition, they are inbound and not “recruited”. They are always non-incentivized. The survey can never be accessed again via the link they found it through, ensuring complete anonymity on the end of the participant and by RIWI, as well as ensuring the randomization of future participants.

RIWI’s engagement and retention policy is built on years of experience, testing, and development of the optimal online survey experience, highly respectful of the time and other activities of the intercepted potential participant. RIWI prioritizes speed, accuracy, intuitiveness and respect for the random participant. RIWI optimizes the survey to every device platform, ensuring a quality survey-taking experience on mobile, tablets, and desktop.

Features of RIWI technology include:

● Geo-targets participants automatically by country, region, state, city, sub-city district, or in circuitous regions using latitude and longitude coordinates

● Determines survey language by automatic geo-targeting using IP geolocation; in multilingual regions, participants can choose their preferred language

● Collects and reports the age, gender and geo-location of every survey participant; no personally identifiable information is ever collected or reported

● Cannot be blocked by state surveillance or Internet control, and is not susceptible to the increasing prevalence of ad block technologies

● Delivers detailed information on the survey performance including the ‘click-open’ rate on the surveys, the number of total and partial participants, and the number of completed surveys

● Surveys are iterative and can be adjusted while infield based on early results.

● RIWI’s rapid assessment capabilities enable the completion of data collection projects in normal and hard-to-reach populations in fewer than three weeks

Appendix B

English Survey Questionnaire

This is a Government of Canada survey on current issues and should take 2-5 minutes to complete. Your participation is voluntary and your responses are anonymous and confidential.

Any information you provide will be administered in accordance with applicable privacy laws.

Data Anonymity Policy

Last Updated: May 20, 2018

As a user of this website, this Data Anonymity Policy is intended to describe for you:

1. the information we DO NOT collect about you,

2. how any anonymous, aggregate information will and will not be used, and

3. your choices about such uses and disclosures.

We encourage you to read this Data Anonymity Policy carefully before using the site. If you have questions or concerns regarding this Data Anonymity Policy, please contact us via email using the email contact information provided below.

Information Collection: No Personally Identifiable Information

We DO NOT collect, process, store or transfer personal information such as your name, mailing address, e-mail address and phone number. When you click on a “vote”, the voting information only may be sent to our servers located in the United States of America and/or other countries around the world. We may collect and store any anonymous information that is untraceable to you, specifically, what you may think about a certain topic or issue, which information you enter into the site or provide to us in some other manner.

We DO NOT collect, process, store or transfer “personally identifiable information”. All data collected are anonymous. “Personally identifiable information” is any information relating to an individual, whether it relates to his or her private, professional or public life. It can be anything from a name, a home address, a photo, an email address, bank details, posts on social networking websites or medical information.

Data Anonymity Policy Changes

This Data Anonymity Policy may be updated from time to time.

Contact: sdsjweb.com AT domainsbyproxy.com

For any enquires about the survey, please contact isabelle.cote [at] pco-bcp.gc.ca

To learn about the firm conducting the survey, go to the following URL: https://info-pco.sdsjweb.com

This survey is conducted by RIWI Corp. For any problems with the survey, contact: inquiry [at] riwi.com

0. What is your age and gender?

1. Generally speaking, would you say that things in Mexico are headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?

Right direction

Wrong direction

2. Of the following issues, which would you say is the most important facing Mexico?

Income inequality

The cost of basic goods

Corruption

Violent crime

The influx of migrants from Central America

Trade relations with the United States and Canada

3. Are you aware that Mexico recently signed a new trade agreement, the T-MEC (Treaty between Mexico, United States and Canada), which replaces TLCAN (North American Free Trade Agreement)?

Yes

4a. Do you think the new T-MEC trade agreement is good or bad for Mexico? (only asked to those aware of T-MEC, YES to Q. 3)

Good

Bad

Not sure

4b. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?

The government should hold public consultations so the people can make decisions on important policies. (only asked to those unaware of T-MEC, NO to Q. 3)

Strongly agree

Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

5. Compared to TLCAN, do you think the T-MEC is better or worse for Mexico? (only asked to those aware of T-MEC, YES to Q. 3)

The T-MEC is better for Mexico.

The T-MEC is worse for Mexico.

The T-MEC is worse for Mexico than TLCAN, but better than no trade agreement at all.

The T-MEC is no better nor worse for Mexico.

Not sure

6. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?

Canada is a trusted economic partner. (randomized with Q. 7a)

Strongly agree

Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?

7a. The United States is a trusted economic partner. (randomized with Q. 6)

Strongly agree

Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

7b. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? (only asked to those unaware of T-MEC, NO to Q. 3)

Any free trade agreement with the United States and Canada is better for Mexico than no agreement at all. (only asked to those unaware of T-MEC, NO to Q. 3)

Strongly agree

Somewhat agree

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

8. Do you support or oppose greater economic integration between Mexico, the United States and Canada?

Strongly support

Somewhat support

Somewhat oppose

Strongly oppose

9. Which of the following statements best reflects your opinion?

Mexico should have fewer restrictions on foreign goods.

Mexico should have more restrictions on foreign goods.

Mexico should not change the amount of restrictions on foreign goods.

10. What is the highest level of education you have completed?

Less than primary school

Primary school

Middle school

High school

Post-secondary education, university

Post-secondary education, technical or commercial studies

Appendix C

French Survey Questionnaire

Ceci est un sondage du gouvernement du Canada sur des enjeux d’actualité qui devrait prendre de 2

à 5 minutes à compléter.

Votre participation est volontaire et vos réponses sont confidentielles.

Toute information que vous fournissez sera administrée conformément aux lois sur la protection de la vie privée applicables.

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Cette politique de confidentialité des données peut être mise à jour de temps à autre.

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Pour toute question au sujet du sondage, veuillez communiquer avec isabelle.cote [à] pco-bcp.gcp.gc.ca.

Pour en savoir plus sur l’entreprise menant le sondage, consultez l’adresse suivante : https://info-pco.sdsjweb.com

Ce sondage est mené par RIWI Corp. Pour tout problème avec le sondage, communiquez avec : inquiry [à] riwi.com.

0. Quel est votre âge et votre sexe ?

1. D’une manière générale, diriez-vous que les choses au Mexique vont dans la bonne direction ou dans la mauvaise direction?

Bonne direction

Mauvaise direction

2. Parmi les enjeux suivants, quel est, selon vous, la plus important pour le Mexique?

Inégalité des revenus

Le coût des aliments de base

La corruption

Crimes violents

L’afflux de migrants d’Amérique centrale

Relations commerciales avec les États-Unis et le Canada

3. Savez-vous que le Mexique a récemment signé un nouvel accord commercial, le T-MEC (Traité entre le Mexique, les États-Unis et le Canada), qui remplace le TLCAN (Accord de libre-échange nordaméricain)?

Oui

Non

4a. Pensez-vous que le nouvel accord commercial T-MEC est bon ou mauvais pour le Mexique (question posée uniquement à ceux qui connaissent le T-MEC, ont répondu OUI à Q. 3).

Bon

Mauvais

Incertain

4b. Êtes-vous en accord ou en désaccord avec l’énoncé suivant?

Le gouvernement devrait tenir des consultations publiques pour que la population puisse prendre des décisions sur des politiques importantes. (question posée uniquement aux personnes qui ne sont pas au courant de l’existence du T-MEC, ont répondu NON à Q. 3)

Tout à fait d’accord

Plutôt d’accord

Plutôt en désaccord

Fortement en désaccord

5. Comparativement à TLCAN, pensez-vous que le T-MEC est meilleur ou pire pour le Mexique? (question posée uniquement à ceux qui connaissent le T-MEC, qui ont répondu OUI à Q. 3)

Le T-MEC est meilleur pour le Mexique.

Le T-MEC est pire pour le Mexique.

Le T-MEC est pire pour le Mexique que le TLCAN, mais mieux que s’il n’y a pas d’accord.

Le T-MEC n’est ni meilleur ni pire pour le Mexique.

Incertain

6. Êtes-vous en accord ou en désaccord avec l’énoncé suivant?

Le Canada est un partenaire économique de confiance. (randomisée avec Q. 7a)

Tout à fait d’accord

Plutôt d’accord

Plutôt en désaccord

Fortement en désaccord

Êtes-vous en accord ou en désaccord avec l’énoncé suivant?

7a. Les États-Unis sont un partenaire économique de confiance. (randomisée avec Q. 6)

Tout à fait d’accord

Plutôt d’accord

Plutôt en désaccord

Fortement en désaccord

7b. Êtes-vous en accord ou en désaccord avec l’énoncé suivant? (question posée uniquement aux personnes qui ne sont pas au courant de l’existence du T-MEC, ont répondu NON à Q. 3)

Tout accord de libre-échange avec les États-Unis et le Canada est mieux pour le Mexique que pas d’accord du tout. (question posée uniquement aux personnes qui ne sont pas au courant de l’existence du T-MEC, ont répondu NON à Q. 3)

Tout à fait d’accord

Plutôt d’accord

Plutôt en désaccord

Fortement en désaccord

8. Êtes-vous pour ou contre une plus grande intégration économique entre le Mexique, les États-Unis et le Canada?

Fortement favorable

Plutôt favorable

Plutôt défavorable

Fortement défavorable

9. Lequel des énoncés suivants reflète le mieux votre opinion?

Le Mexique devrait avoir moins de restrictions sur les produits étrangers.

Le Mexique devrait avoir plus de restrictions sur les produits étrangers.

Le Mexique ne devrait pas modifier le montant des restrictions sur les produits étrangers.

10. Quel est le plus haut niveau de scolarité que vous avez complété?

Niveau inférieur au primaire

École primaire

École intermédiaire

École secondaire

Éducation postsecondaire, université

Éducation postsecondaire, études commerciales ou techniques

Appendix D

Spanish Survey Questionnaire

Esta es una encuesta del Gobierno de Canadá sobre temas de actualidad y responderla debería tomar entre 2 y 5 minutos. Su participación es voluntaria y sus respuestas ermanecerán nónimas y confidenciales.

Toda la información que proporcione será tratada de conformidad con las leyes sobre privacidad correspondientes.

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Última actualización: 20 de mayo de 2018

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Para preguntas acerca de la encuesta, póngase en contacto con isabelle.cote[en]pco-bcp.gc.ca

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La presente encuesta está siendo realizada por RlWl Corp. Para problemas con la encuesta, contacte a inquiry[en]riwi.com.

0. ¿Cuál es su edad y su sexo?

1. En general, ¿diría que las cosas en México van en la dirección correcta, o van en la dirección equivocada?

Dirección correcta

Dirección equivocada

2. De los siguientes temas, ¿cuál considera el asunto político más importante que enfrenta México?

La desigualdad de ingresos

El costo de la canasta básica

La corrupción

El crimen violento

La afluencia de migrantes de Centroamérica

Las relaciones comerciales con Estados Unidos y Canadá

3. ¿Está al tanto de que México firmó recientemente un nuevo acuerdo comercial, el T-MEC (Tratado entre México, Estados Unidos y Canadá), que reemplaza al TLCAN (Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte)?

Sí

4a. ¿Considera que el nuevo acuerdo comercial T-MEC es bueno o malo para México?

Bueno

Malo

No estoy seguro(a)

4b. ¿Está de acuerdo o en desacuerdo con la siguiente afirmación?

El gobierno debería realizar consultas públicas para que la población pueda tomar decisiones sobre políticas importantes

Muy de acuerdo

De acuerdo

En desacuerdo

Muy en desacuerdo

5. En comparación con el TLCAN, ¿considera que el T-MEC es mejor o peor para México?

El T-MEC es mejor para México.

El T-MEC es peor para México.

El T-MEC es peor para México que el TLCAN, pero es preferible a no tener ningún acuerdo comercial.

El T-MEC no es ni mejor ni peor para México.

No estoy seguro(a)

6. ¿Está de acuerdo o en desacuerdo con la siguiente afirmación?

Canadá es un socio comercial confiable.

Muy de acuerdo

De acuerdo

En desacuerdo

Muy en desacuerdo

7a. ¿Está de acuerdo o en desacuerdo con la siguiente afirmación?

Estados Unidos es un socio comercial confiable.

Muy de acuerdo

De acuerdo

En desacuerdo

Muy en desacuerdo

7b. ¿Está de acuerdo o en desacuerdo con la siguiente afirmación?

Es mejor para Mexico que exista cualquier acuerdo de libre comercio con Estados Unidos y Canadá a que no exista ningun acuerdo.

Muy de acuerdo

De acuerdo

En desacuerdo

Muy en desacuerdo

8. ¿Apoya o se opone a una mayor integración económica entre México, Estados Unidos y Canadá?

La apoyo fuertemente

La apoyo moderadamente

Me opongo moderadamente

Me opongo fuertemente

9. ¿Cuál de las siguientes afirmaciones refleja mejor su opinión?

México debería imponer menos restricciones a los productos extranjeros.

México debería imponer más restricciones a los productos extranjeros.

México no debería cambiar el número de restricciones que impone a los productos extranjeros.

10. ¿Cuál es el nivel de estudios más alto que ha concluido?

Menos que educación primaria

Primaria

Secundaria

Preparatoria o Bachillerato

Educación superior, universidad

Educación superior, estudios técnicos o comerciales

Appendix E

Data Tables

All data tables are available in the accompanying document: Appendix E Final Data Tables. Included are the full survey unweighted data and weighted data.