Annual Financial Report 2000-2001: 5
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Comparison of Actual Budgetary Outcomes to October 2000 Economic Statement and Budget Update Estimates

This section compares the actual outcome for the major components of the budgetary balance for 2000-01 with the estimates presented in the October 2000 Economic Statement and Budget Update.

Under the Debt Repayment Plan, the fiscal target for each year is based on:

• Using the average of private sector economic forecasts for budget-planning purposes.

• Including an annual Contingency Reserve to cover risks arising from unpredictable events and unavoidable inaccuracies in the economic and fiscal models used to translate the economic assumptions into detailed budget forecasts. It is not a source of funding for new policy initiatives. If not needed, it is used to pay down the public debt. For 2000-01 the Contingency Reserve was set at $3.0 billion.

• Adding an extra degree of economic prudence to provide further assurance against falling back into deficit. In the 2000 budget this economic prudence was set at $1 billion for 2000-01.

In the October 2000 Economic Statement and Budget Update, the Government added a new element to its Debt Repayment Plan. Each fall it will announce whether a greater amount should be dedicated to that year’s debt paydown. The Government committed to a budgetary surplus of at least $10 billion for 2000-01.

Economic growth for 2000 was significantly stronger than expected at the time of the 2000 budget. Nominal income growth, based on the average of private sector forecasts, was projected at 5.7 per cent for 2000. For the October 2000 Economic Statement and Budget Update, this was revised up to 8.0 per cent. Preliminary estimates from Statistics Canada, which were released in late May 2000, suggest that nominal income growth in 2000 averaged 8.3 per cent.

In the October 2000 Economic Statement and Budget Update, the fiscal surplus for 2000-01 was estimated at $11.9 billion, of which at least $10 billion was earmarked for debt paydown. The final outcome was $5.2 billion higher, all of which was used for debt paydown.

Budgetary revenues were $4.9 billion higher. Non-tax revenues were $1.7 billion higher, primarily reflecting higher revenues on foreign exchange account transactions. Excise taxes and duties were $1.7 billion higher than expected, primarily reflecting much stronger than anticipated customs import duties. Personal income tax revenues were $0.9 billion higher while other income tax was up $0.8 billion.

Program spending was $0.4 billion lower than estimated in the October 2000 Economic Statement and Budget Update, despite the announcement of $2.1 billion of new initiatives, including incremental funding for the Canada Foundation for Innovation, agriculture assistance and defence. The impact of these initiatives was more than offset by lower direct program spending, reflecting higher than expected net gains from enterprise Crown corporations, unamortized pension estimation adjustments associated with several Crown corporations implementing their own pension plans, and higher lapses of appropriations associated with the timing of the federal election. Public debt charges were $0.1 billion lower than estimated.