One of the most interesting books I've read in 1996 is Boom, Bust & Echo by David Foot and Daniel Stoffman. Foot has a doctorate in economics from Harvard and is currently an economist and demographer at the University of Toronto. Stoffman is a graduate of the University of British Columbia and the London School of Economics and is currently an award-winning journalist.
Foot and Stoffman have joined to present how demographics have shaped buying, lifestyle and economic trends over the past century. The book is based on Foot's extensive research and life's work in the area of demography, the study of human populations. The authors believe that it is critical for all of us to understand demographic realities, be better prepared to cope with them and to turn them to our advantage.
The book explains numerous historical and current situations which support their theory of demographics. For example, the beer industry has for many years focused on young, sports-minded men who are consumers of large volumes of relatively inexpensive beer. The beer companies stuck to this market even though the baby boom was getting older and were less likely to consume large volumes of inexpensive beer. The generation after the boomers is much smaller and, therefore, it appeared that the beer market had significantly evaporated. The end result was the emergence of small micro-breweries which have now captured a large portion of the beer market by providing up-scale products to boomers who consume less volume of higher quality beer. Now the bigger breweries are scrambling to re-capture the market they lost due to not fully understanding the demographics of their customers.
The beer example is just one of many provided by the authors. They have similar stories about changes in recreational activities, the cosmetic industry, real estate, etc.
The authors have categorized the population into a series of cohorts. The primary cohorts described in the book are the baby boom, the baby bust, the baby-boom echo and the millennium kids. The baby boomers were born between 1947 and 1966. The authors explain that "to hear them [baby boomers] talk, you'd think they were the most innovative and creative bunch of people Canada had ever seen, infusing all of society with new ways of doing things. This is nonsense. In fact, when they were twenty, baby-boomers weren't much different from the twenty year-olds who had proceeded them. And now that many of them are in their late forties, they are behaving just as middle-aged people have always behaved." They are the single largest cohort today and as result have the greatest influence on business - strictly due to their size.
The baby bust is the cohort born between 1967 and 1979. This group is significantly smaller than the baby boomers. The authors reason that the size of the group is related to "the commercial introduction of the birth-control pill in 1961 and the rising participation of women in the labour market." The early baby busters have done well in immediately following the baby boom by having a lot opportunities at part-time jobs, schools, etc. since there was a lower supply of people in the baby-bust and, therefore, less competition.
The baby-boom echo is the cohort born between 1980 and 1995. These are the children of the boomers. The baby-boom echo is another large cohort which will bring with it some challenges such as crowded schools and a high supply of workers competing for the same jobs.
The millennium kids are the future cohort to be born between 1996 and 2010. These are the babies of the baby-busters (a cohort which is 45% smaller than the baby boomers). They should, therefore, be another small and favoured cohort.
The book describes the historical and potential future impact of demographics on real estate, investments, jobs, corporations, retail, recreational activities, education, health care, cities and families. In this review it would be impossible to do the book justice. I will, however, focus in on the areas which I think most significantly impact telework and the overall redefinition of where and when we work.
The impact on real estate is the most interesting. The move to telework, home-based business and "cacooning" as some have called it has received a tremendous amount of press. The press suggest that these situations represent a fundamental change in our culture and values. The authors suggest that it is more a reflection of the position of the boomers in the overall life-cycle. The boomers are now in their forties and as such most are raising families, have somewhat established careers and are prepared to trade time for money. They are at a stage when they spend more time at home. The impact on residential real-estate has been the shift from "yesterday's five-bedroom house to today's three-bedroom, two-office house."
The impact on commercial real-estate is also interesting. The need for more traditional office space is diminishing and many downtown areas are now starting to integrate residential and commercial uses to ensure the long term viability of the downtown core. This is certainly the case in downtown Vancouver where there are numerous condominium towers being constructed but not new office space.
The impact on jobs and the corporation is equally dramatic. The mid-1980s saw many hard-working employees get "stuck" on the corporate ladder. Some of these people were down-sized or choose to leave to join smaller companies or to start their own businesses. The authors explained that the traditional "triangular corporate structure works when there is a large and continuing flow of new workers at the entry level, constantly maintaining the large base of the triangle." The change in demographics obviously has had an impact as the traditional system tends to work best when there are more younger than older employees.
The authors suggest that the future will involve a more flexible workforce. This will be "a workforce whose participants move easily between jobs, employers and industries. It's also a workforce that allows its participants both to begin and to end their working careers gradually, and that provides plentiful opportunities for retraining." They also expect that the concept of retirement will change as older workers will choose when to ease their way out of the workforce.
This book provides the reader with an opportunity to consider historical and future trends in a new light. The book certainly supports many of the significant changes and cultural adjustments that Telework International readers have been experiencing for the past decade. The key to the future will be continued change, flexibility and learning.
Author: David K. Foot with Daniel Stoffman
Publisher: Macfarlane Walter & Ross, Toronto, Ontario
ISBN: 0-921912-97-8
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