Unsteady State: The 1997 Canadian Federal Election

Neil Nevitte, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Richard Nadeau (2000)

How did the 1997 Canadian Federal Election differ from those that have come before it? Had the country’s demographics changed dramatically enough to flummox pollsters and the parties? Are we headed toward American-style politics as candidate campaigns become highly charged and even more personal? Neil Nevitte, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil and Richard Nadeau examine what worked, what didn’t and why for the four major parties and the independent candidates in Unsteady State.

(Don Mills: Oxford University Press)

Are Party Leaders Becoming More Important to Vote Choice in Canada?
Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington DC, August 30 - September 3, 2000.

Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Richard Nadeau

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This paper examines the impact of leader and party evaluations on vote choice in Canada over a thirty-year time period, from 1968 to 1997. It finds no support for the proposition that leaders have become more important to the vote. Leader evaluations do have a significant independent impact on vote choice, but leader effects have not increased across time. There is also little evidence that party effects have diminished. Levels of television exposure, campaign interest and education have only a modest effect on the relative weight of leader and party evaluations.

Elections and Satisfaction with Democracy
Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington D.C., August 30-September 3, 2000.

Richard Nadeau, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, and Elisabeth Gidengil

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Democracy consists of a set of principles and rules that allow collectivities to make decisions in an economical, predictable and peaceful manner. Voters' satisfaction with democracy should therefore normally peak in the post-electoral period, immediately after these principles have been successfully put to the test. But is this really the case ? Does satisfaction with democracy increase in a significant manner after an election ? And if it does, what factors lead individuals to express greater satisfaction with the workings of democracy after an election ? The 1997 Canadian Election Study allow us to draw specific conclusions concerning the relationship between elections and satisfaction with democracy, and the possible 'demonstration' effect elections can have on citizens' post-election attitudes towards the workings of democracy. Our findings show that the level of satisfaction with democracy increases in a noticeable manner after an election, but apparently not during the campaign. Moreover, this increase appears linked less to the election specific result (the re-election of the incumbent government) than to its general result of electing a legitimate government.

Women to the Left, Men to the Right? Gender and Voting in the 1997 Canadian Election
Paper presented at the 18th World Congress of the International Political Science Association, Quebec City, August 1-5, 2000.

Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Richard Nadeau

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The first part of the paper examines trends in the gender gap in Canada between 1965 and 1997. We demonstrate that Canada presents a clear case of gender realignment. The gender gap in Reform voting in the 1993 and 1997 elections provides compelling evidence that men have been more likely than women to move to the right. Female support for the NDP increased in the late 1970s and 1980s, but the more important reason for the emergence of a gender gap in support for the left in the 1990s was that women were less likely than men to move away from the NDP. The second part of the paper tests possible explanations of the gender gaps on both the left and the right. We broaden the scope of gender gap research to consider both female-centered and male-centered interpretations. Overall, we found more support for socio-psychological explanations than for explanations that emphasized structural and situational

Socio-Economic Status and Non-Voting : A Cross-National Comparative Analysis
Paper presented at the 18th World Congress of the International Political Science Association, Quebec City, August 1-5, 2000.

Neil Nevitte, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Richard Nadeau

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This study examines the relationship between socio-economic status and non-voting using data from the first module of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems project,. SES influences non-voting in all countries included in the first module, regardless of economic, political or institutional characteristics. The strength and patterns of the relationship between SES and non-voting vary cross-nationally. The main finding is that four SES variables are consistently related to non-voting even after contextual factors, like economic conditions, electoral history (whether a new or consolidated democracies), electoral rules, and party systems are taken into account, low SES is still associated with non-voting.

Do Trained and Untrained Coders Perceive Electoral Coverage Differently?
Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, September 3-6, 1998.

Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte, André Blais

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Trained and untrained coders' assessments of TV coverage of parties during the 1997 Canadian election are compared. Untrained coders' perceptions are more positive than those of trained coders and can be colored by partisan and personal predispositions. Despite these perceptual screens, both trained and untrained coders' assessments exhibit similar dynamics during the campaign.

Issue Importance and Performance Voting
Political Behavior, 25:51-67.

Patrick Fournier, Richard Nadeau, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte (2003).

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Issue importance mediates the impact of public policy issues on electoral decisions (Krosnick, 1988, 1990). Individuals who consider that an issue is important are more likely to rely on their attitudes toward that issue when evaluating candidates and deciding whom to vote for. The logic behind the link between issue importance and issue voting should translate to a link between issue importance and performance voting. Incumbent performance evaluations regarding an issue should have a stronger impact on the vote choice of individuals who find that issue important. The analysis demonstrates that there is a significant interaction between performance evaluations and issue importance. People concerned about an issue assign more weight to their evaluations of the government on that issue when making up their mind.

Election Campaigns as Information Campaigns: Who Learns What and with What Effect?

Richard Nadeau, Neil Nevitte, Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais

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During election campaigns political parties compete to inform voters about their leaders, the issues, and where they stand on these issues. In that sense, election campaigns can be viewed as a particular kind of information campaign. Democratic theory supposes that participatory democracies are better served by an informed electorate rather than an uninformed one. But do all voters make equal information gains during campaigns? Why do some people make more information gains than others? And does the acquisition of campaign information have any impact on vote intentions? Drawing on the combined insights from political science research, communications theory and social psychology, we develop specific hypotheses about these campaign information dynamics. These hypotheses are tested with data from the 1997 Canadian Election Study, which includes a rolling cross-national campaign component, a post-election component, and a media content analysis. The results show that some people do make more information gains than others; campaigns produce a knowledge gap. Further, the intensity of media signals on different issues has an important impact on who receives what information and information gains have a significant impact on vote intentions.

Do Party Supporters Differ?
Published in Joanna Everitt and Brenda O'Neill (eds.), Citizen Politics: Research and Theory in Canadian Political Behaviour, Don Mills: Oxford University Press, p.184-201

André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Richard Nadeau, Neil Nevitte (2002)

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There is a debate, in Canada as elsewhere, about whether parties really make a difference. Much of the literature on this question looks at whether policies and spending differ according to the partisan composition of governments. The approach adopted here is different. Using survey data from the 1997 Canadian Election Study, we examine the extent to which each party's voters differ in their views on the major issues of the day.

The Impact of Issues and the Economy in the 1997 Canadian Federal Election
Published in Canadian Journal of Political Science, 35: 409-421

André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte (2002)

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The article examines the impact of issues and the economy in the 1997 Canadian election among voters outside Quebec. We show that both factors affected individual vote choice. We provide estimates of how much difference the issues and the economy made in the election. It appears that the issues were decisive for nine per cent of the voters and the economy for four per cent. Issues mattered more than the economy for individual vote choice. The net impact of both the issues and the economy on vote support for the different parties was practically nil. The findings indicate that the Liberal victory cannot be imputed to the economy or the issues.

Changes in the Party System and Anti-Party Sentiment
Published in William Cross (ed.), Political Parties, Representation, and Electoral Democracy in Canada, Don Mills: Oxford University Press, p.68-86

Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Neil Nevitte (2002)

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This chapter examines whether the emergence of two new parties in the 1993 election helped to restore Canadians' confidence in the health and viability of political parties. We conclude that the answer has to be different for Quebec and for Canada outside Quebec. Outside Quebec, there is little evidence to suggest that the trend toward increasing disaffection with political parties has been halted. Turnout has declined sharply since 1988, the proportion of people who lack any residual sense of party identification has grown, and feelings about political parties as a whole have gone from being lukewarm or neutral, on average, to being clearly negative. In Quebec, on the other hand, the option of voting for a sovereignist party in federal elections has clearly helped to check anti-partyism.

Priming and Campaign Context: Evidence from Recent Canadian Elections
Published in David Farrell and Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck (eds.), Do Political Campaigns Matter? Campaign Effects in Elections and Referendums, London: Routledge.

Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Richard Nadeau (2002)

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This paper uses data from the 1988, 1993 and 1997 Canadian Election Studies to examine the priming effect of election campaigns. We demonstrate that campaigns clearly do affect the bases on which people decide their vote. These priming effects vary, though, depending on the nature of the campaign. We conclude that issue priming may be the exception rather than the norm, occurring only when new and dramatic issues dominate the campaign. This was the case in the 1988 election. In the absence of a single dominant issue, the priming of leadership is the more typical campaign effect, reflecting the leader-centered nature of campaign coverage. In both 1993 and 1997, leader evaluations became more important to the vote as the campaign progressed and as media consumption increased. The more leadership was primed, the less important party identification became to the vote.

Measuring Party Identification: Britain, Canada, and the United States
Published in Political Behavior, 23: 5-22

André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Richard Nadeau, Neil Nevitte (2001)

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The paper proposes an empirically based reflection on how to measure party identification cross-nationally, using data from the 1997 Canadian Election Study, the 1997 British Election Study, and the 1996 American National Election Study. These studies included both traditional national questions and a new common one, which allows for an assessment of the effects of question wording on the distribution and correlates of party identification. We show that the distribution of party identification is strongly affected by question wording and that the relationship between party identification and variables such as party and leader ratings, voting behavior, and age does not quite conform to theoretical expectations. We point out problems in the wording of party identification questions and propose an alternative formulation.

The Formation of Party Preferences: Testing the Proximity and Directional Models
Published in European Journal of Political Research, 40: 81-91

André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte (2001)

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We review the methodological debate between defenders of the proximity and directional models. We propose what we believe to be a rigorous and fair test of the two models, using the 1997 Canadian Election Study. The analysis is based on responses to questions in which the various issue positions are explicitly spelled out. We rely on individual perceptions of party positions because it is individual perceptions that matter in the formation of party preferences but we control for projection effects through a multivariate model that incorporates, in addition to indicators of distance and direction, socio-demographic characteristics, party identification, and leader ratings. We also take into account whether a party is perceived to be extreme. The empirical evidence vindicates the proximity model.

Measuring Strategic Voting in Multiparty Plurality Elections
Published in Electoral Studies, 20: 343-352

André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte (2001)

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We propose a method for measuring strategic voting in multiparty plurality elections, and we apply that method to the 1997 Canadian election. The first stage of the inquiry determines whether voters' expectations about the outcome of the election have an independent effect on vote choice, after controlling their preferences, more specifically their party identification and evaluations of parties and leaders. We show that in the 1997 Canadian election perceptions of the local race in the constituency did affect the vote, but not perceptions of the race for who would form the government and the official opposition. The second stage of the analysis consists in assessing for each respondent whether her vote was sincere or strategic: a respondent is deemed to have cast a strategic vote if whether her expectations about the outcome of the election are considered or not leads to a different prediction about which party she is most likely to support. On that basis, we estimate that about 3% of voters cast a strategic vote in the 1997 election.

Validation of Time of Voting Decision Recall
Published in Public Opinion Quarterly, 65: 95-107

Patrick Fournier, André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte (2001)

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This paper examines the validity of reported time of voting decision. Previous studies have found that this recall question does not provide reliable indicators of actual behavior. These studies focus on the American electoral system. We present data from Canada. In the context of a campaign which spans less than two months and where the alternatives are clearly defined before the start of the campaign, reported time of voting decision turns out to be an excellent predictor of the stability and instability of vote choice between panel waves. Most voters really do move from indecision to decision and from one choice to their final decision at the time which they say they made up their mind.

The Correlates and Consequences of Anti-Partyism in the 1997 Canadian Election
Published in Party Politics, 7: 491-513

Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Richard Nadeau (2001)

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This article examines why anti-party rhetoric resonates with some citizens, but not with others, and how this affects their electoral behaviour. The data are taken from the 1997 Canadian Election Study. Social background characteristics turn out to have only a very modest effect on anti-party sentiment. Political sophistication is associated with a less critical view of political parties, while economic frustration and perceived system deficiencies make for more negative attitudes, but the key factor is issue alienation from the incumbent party. This is also the most important factor in influencing how citizens express their anti-party sentiment. Anti-partyism is more likely to result in an 'anti-party' vote than in abstention. Those who are more involved and more informed are especially likely to work for change within the system.

Perceptions of Party Competence in the 1997 Election
Published in Hugh Thorburn and Alan Whitehorn (eds.) Party Politics in Canada 8th ed. Toronto: Prentice-Hall, p.413-430

Richard Nadeau, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte (2001)

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This chapter uses data from the Canadian Election Study to examine Canadians’ perceptions about the parties’ competence in dealing with a number of issues at the time of the 1997 federal election. This analysis is of interest for two reasons. First, it allows an assessment of how the arrival of two new parties on the federal scene, namely the Reform Party and the Bloc Québécois, modified these perceptions. Second, it provides a more systematic examination of the effect of party image on Canadian electoral behaviour than has been undertaken to date.

Do People Have Feelings Towards Leaders About Whom They Say They Know Nothing?
Published in Public Opinion Quarterly, 64: 452-463

André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil (2000)

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Most people have feelings about leaders even if they say they know nothing about them. When asked how they feel about these leaders, people usually provide a rating and most of the time these ratings are meaningful, in the sense that they have an independent effect on their vote. At the same time, those who indicate they know nothing about a leader appear to be less confident about their evaluations. As a consequence, they attach less weight to these evaluations and more to how they feel about the parties when deciding how to vote. The practical implication is that it is useful to tap respondents' subjective level of knowledge about the leaders, because leader evaluations tend to have a smaller impact on the vote among those who feel they know nothing about a leader. These findings are consistent with the middle position taken by Zaller about non-opinion and non-attitudes. The data indicate that the responses provided by those who say they know nothing about a leader do not simply reflect random guessing. At the same time, a respondent who says she knows nothing about a leader conveys the message that her feelings towards that person are particularly tentative.

It's Unemployment, Stupid! Why Perceptions About the Job Situation Hurt the Liberals in the 1997 Election
Published in Canadian Public Policy, 26: 77-94

Richard Nadeau, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Elisabeth Gidengil (2000)

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The Liberals almost lost their parliamentary majority in June 1997. This article argues that perceptions of the unemployment situation hurt the Liberals and cost them the support of almost three percentage points of votes. We examine the reasons why Canadians did not render a more positive judgment on the job situation despite a decrease of the official unemployment rate in Canada during the Liberal mandate. The results of this study raise a number of questions about voters' behaviour, about the diffusion and penetration of both general and economic information within the electorate, about the criteria with which voters use to judge governments, and on the incentives these governments might have to manufacture political business cycles.

Campaign Dynamics in the 1997 Canadian Election
Published in Canadian Public Policy 25: 197-205

André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte (1999)

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The paper uses the 1997 Canadian Election Study (CES) to determine whether there were significant dynamics in the 1997 Canadian election and to provide an assessment of the two key events of the campaign: the televised leader debates and the "Quebec" Reform ad. The data indicate that both events had a substantial impact on vote intentions but that the impact was only temporary. Their final effect on the outcome of the election was negligible. The data also indicate that, irrespective of these two events, Reform made some gains during the campaign, mostly at the expense of the Liberals.

Making Sense of Regional Voting in the 1997 Federal Election: Liberal and Reform Support Outside Quebec
Published in Canadian Journal of Political Science 32: 247-272

Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Richard Nadeau (1999)

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This article uses a regression decomposition approach to explore the meaning of the gaps in Liberal support between Ontario, the West and Atlantic Canada, as well as the gap in Reform support between the West and Ontario. The analysis proceeds in two stages. The first stage involves determining whether the regional vote gaps reflect "true" regional differences or whether they can be explained simply in terms of differences in the socio-demographic makeup of the regions. Having ascertained that the gaps are not spurious, the second stage of the analysis probes the beliefs and attitudes that underlie them. It turns out that the gaps are driven not just by differences in political orientations and beliefs from one region to another, but also by more fundamental differences in basic political priorities.