Elections Canada commissioned Phoenix Strategic Perspectives Inc. (Phoenix SPI) and Advanis to conduct research to help evaluate the 43rd federal general election.
Elections Canada (EC) is an independent, non-partisan agency that reports directly to Parliament. The agency is mandated to conduct federal general elections, by-elections, and referendums; administer the political financing provisions of the Canada Elections Act; monitor compliance; and enforce electoral legislation.
In the context of a federal general election (GE), EC conducts studies of electors that are used as part of the evaluation and development of EC's programs and services and to inform the Chief Electoral Officer's reports to Parliament.
The 2019 National Electors Study (NES) is EC's primary public opinion research study conducted for the 43rd GE held on October 21, 2019. The NES measures electors' values, opinions, and attitudes toward various election-related policy issues; their knowledge of, expectations toward, and experience with the electoral process; and their satisfaction with the agency's communications, services, and programs.
Many measures in the 2019 NES provide continuity with previous EC surveys conducted in 2015 for the 42nd GE, including the Survey of Electors, Evaluation of the Electoral Reminder Program, and the National Youth Survey.
The NES consisted of two components: 1) a national longitudinal survey of electors, and 2) a series of post-election focus groups and interviews. For the first time, the survey of electors included: a large-scale longitudinal sample in addition to a discrete random sample; integrated use of mixed online and telephone surveying; and three waves of data collection conducted before, during, and after the election period.
This report presents the survey results on electors' perspectives on the administration of the 43rd GE, in terms of:
Two other reports present the findings of the NES on other topics, including a report on the voter information campaign and elector awareness during the 43rd GE and a report on electors' views on election-related policy issues.
The results from all reports will be used to assist in evaluating and refining Elections Canada's programs and services to the electorate.
A brief overview of the 2019 NES quantitative methodology is provided in this section. A detailed description of the research methodology, including the research instruments, can be found under separate cover.
The National Electors Study was conducted by telephone (by live interviewers) and online (via Advanis's online survey platform) between June and December 2019 in three survey waves. All respondents were eligible electors—Canadian citizens who were at least 18 years of age on polling day (October 21, 2019). The questionnaires varied in length from 15 to 20 minutes.
The longitudinal sample was recruited for the pre-election survey (W1) in June 2019 using probability sampling (random-digit dial phone recruitment using an overlapping dual frame, including landlines and cellphones) and non-probability sampling (web panel). Two-thirds of respondents were obtained using probability sampling. Electors were recruited in proportion to the population by province, age, and gender. To ensure sufficient final sample sizes, the recruitment targets took into consideration expected attrition across each sample source. Respondents in the longitudinal sample were invited back to participate in subsequent survey waves. A discrete random-digit dial sample was recruited solely for the post-election survey wave to offset attrition in the longitudinal sample.
| Wave | Sample | Method of data collection | Field period | Sample size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | Longitudinal | Online, telephone | Pre-election: June 12 to July 14, 2019 | 49,993 |
| W2 | Longitudinal | Online | Election period: September 3 to October 20, 2019 | 23,880 |
| W3a | Longitudinal | Online, telephone | Post-election: October 23 to December 9, 2019 | 19,435 |
| W3b | Discrete | Telephone | Post-election: October 22 to November 12, 2019 | 2,000 |
The W2 election period survey was fielded as a rolling cross-section and divided into five phases. Questions changed based on the survey date to correspond with milestones in the election period, as follows:
The survey data have been weighted to correspond to the demographic composition of the full population of electors. Weighting was done in two stages: adjustments for factors related to the study design, including differences in probability of selection between sample frames, the in-scope rate, non-response, and household size; followed by post-stratification/calibration to align the results with known population characteristics of age, gender, and province/territory. Different weights were calculated at each wave to account for attrition in the longitudinal sample over the course of the study.
The inclusion of the non-random web panel means no estimate of sampling error can be calculated for the entire sample, and results are not statistically projectable to the entire elector population. A margin of sampling error and statistical estimations can be obtained if the panel is excluded and only the random samples are considered, in which case all samples are of a size such that overall results across all waves would have a margin of sampling error less than ±1%, 19 times out of 20. The margins of error for subsamples would be larger.