Introduction, Survey of Electors Following the December 12, 2022, By-election in Mississauga–Lakeshore (Ontario)

Background and Objectives

Elections Canada (EC) is an independent, non-partisan agency that reports directly to Parliament. The agency is mandated to conduct federal general elections, by-elections, and referendums, administer the political financing provisions of the Canada Elections Act (CEA), monitor compliance, and enforce electoral legislation.

As part of its evaluation program, the agency wanted to conduct a survey of eligible electors in the electoral district of Mississauga–Lakeshore, where a by-election was held on December 12, 2022. The purpose of the survey was to obtain reliable survey data to evaluate electors' opinions, attitudes and knowledge of the agency's services and various aspects of their experience.

The research objectives were to measure electors' opinions on various election-related issues and to assist in evaluating and refining Elections Canada's programs and services to the electorate. More specifically, the survey aimed to assess the following aspects:

awareness of the election and different aspects of the voting process
sources of information about the election
experiences with registration, including the voter information card
experiences with communications from EC
experiences with voting in the by-election
attitudes toward Elections Canada and the election results

The results will be used to assist in evaluating and refining Elections Canada's programs and services to the electorate. They may also be used to help in developing the Chief Electoral Officer's reports to Parliament.

Methodology

A 15-minute random-digit-dial telephone survey was conducted with a sample of eligible electors. Eligible electors were Canadian citizens, at least 18 years of age on polling day (December 12, 2022), who were residents of the electoral district (i.e. had an address of ordinary residence in the electoral district) from the first day of the by-election period until election day. The data collection was conducted from December 13 to 22, 2022.

An overlapping dual-frame (landline and cell phone) sample was used to minimize coverage error: 70% of numbers were landline and 30% were wireless. Those who declined to participate in the survey when contacted by telephone were offered the option of completing the survey through an online self-administered questionnaire. Nine respondents participated using the online questionnaire. As a result, 391 completed surveys were conducted over the telephone and nine were completed online.

The survey data were weighted to accurately reflect the age and gender distribution of eligible electors. Based on a sample of this size, the overall results would have a maximum margin of error of ±4.9%, 19 times out of 20. The maximum margins of error would be greater for results pertaining to subgroups of the total sample. For a more complete description of the methodology, refer to Annex 1.

Notes to Reader

The survey research relies on self-reported voter turnout, which tends to be overreported in public opinion surveys. In this survey, self-reported turnout was 74%, while the turnout rate for the by-election among registered electors was 27.8%. A limitation of this research, therefore, is that it overrepresents voters in the survey sample. Two factors may be responsible for the overrepresentation of voters: 1) people who vote may be more likely than non-voters to participate in a study about voting (response bias), and 2) people who did not vote may report that they voted in order to present themselves in a more positive light (social desirability bias).
For editorial purposes, the terms "electors" and "respondents" are used interchangeably to denote survey participants. The term "voters" denotes survey participants who reported having voted.
All results in the report are expressed as percentages, unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not always add to 100% due to rounding or multiple mentions.
The number of respondents changes throughout the report because questions were often asked of a sub-sample of respondents. Accordingly, readers should be aware of this and exercise caution when interpreting results based on smaller numbers of respondents.
Subgroup differences are identified in the report where applicable. When reporting variations, only differences that are significant at the 95% confidence level and that pertain to a subgroup sample size of n=30 or greater are discussed in the report.
- If one or more categories in a subgroup are not mentioned in a discussion of subgroup differences, it can be assumed that significant differences were found only among the categories reported.
- If no subgroup differences are identified for a question, it can be assumed that there were no significant differences.