An overlapping dual-frame (landline and cell phone) sample was used to minimize coverage error: 70% of numbers were landline and 30% were wireless. To ensure that the sample was representative and that the results reflected the distribution of electors by age and gender, the sampling frame was based on Statistics Canada census data and stratified by age.
The landline sample was supplied by ASDE, and the wireless sample was provided by Advanis. A probability sample was drawn from Advanis' proprietary General Population Random Sample (GPRS). This sample has been recruited via RDD using both wireless and landline telephone numbers as well as interactive voice response (IVR) calling and live interviewers. Using wireless RDD was not feasible given the incidence of wireless sample available in this electoral district.
Respondents were randomly selected using wireless and landline samples to reach younger electors and to ensure cell phone-only households were included in the sampling frame. In terms of the specific respondent in the household, interviewers asked to speak to an individual 18 years of age and older or a person in the household who had the most recent birthday. If that was not the initial individual answering the telephone, but another in the household, interviewers asked to speak to the eligible respondent. No selection procedures were used for the cell phone sample.
Once an appropriate adult was reached, voter eligibility was verified by the interviewer. To be eligible for the survey, respondents had to be Canadian citizens of at least 18 years of age on polling day and to have had an address of ordinary residence in the electoral district from the first day of the revision period until election day.
To pre-test the questionnaire, respondents were first administered the survey and then asked about the clarity of the questionnaire. The short debrief following the survey provided an opportunity for respondents to offer feedback on the questionnaire. In total, 28 pre-test interviews were conducted by telephone on December 13, 2022. Respondents had the choice of participating in the official language of their choice. The pre-test interviews were digitally recorded and reviewed by Phoenix SPI team members and Elections Canada officials.
Overall, the questionnaire worked well, as was expected given that the questionnaire has been administered following previous by-elections, as well as the National Electors Study. There was only one area of concern—the survey length. For those aware of the by-election, the survey averaged 18.7 minutes (aware), and for those not aware, it averaged 10.6 minutes. Several questions were removed from the questionnaire before the fieldwork continued to bring the average interview length to 15 minutes.
All fieldwork was conducted using computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) and computer-assisted web interviewing (CAWI) technology. In an effort to minimize non-response, those who declined to complete the survey over the telephone were given the option to complete the survey online. Nine respondents completed the online version. The remainder, 391 surveys, were conducted by telephone. Based on a sample of this size (n=400), the overall results would have a maximum margin of error of ±4.9%, 19 times out of 20.
The following specifications applied:
The following tables presents information about the final call dispositions for this survey and calculation of the response rate:
Landline | Wireless | |
---|---|---|
Total numbers attempted | 41,026 | 1,070 |
Out-of-scope—invalid | 20,113 | 77 |
Landline | Wireless | |
---|---|---|
No answer/answering machine | 16,085 | 498 |
Unresolved (U) | 16,085 | 498 |
Landline | Wireless | |
---|---|---|
Language barrier/illness/incapable | 142 | 2 |
Call-back (respondent not available) | 17 | 1 |
Refusal (household) | 2,584 | 121 |
Refusal (respondent) | 1,056 | 135 |
Qualified respondent break-off/partial complete | 23 | 4 |
In-scope—non-responding (IS) | 3,822 | 263 |
Landline | Wireless | |
---|---|---|
Completed interview | 275 | 125 |
Terminate¬—age stratum filled | 695 | 25 |
Does not qualify—citizenship | 2 | 1 |
Does not qualify—age | 2 | 1 |
Does not qualify—not in riding | 32 | 80 |
In-scope—responding units (R) | 1,002 | 232 |
Landline | Wireless | |
---|---|---|
Response ratefootnote 1 | 4.8% | 23.3% |
The survey data were weighted via calibration to accurately reflect the age and gender distribution of eligible electors in the Mississauga–Lakeshore riding. Specifically, the nested census populations of men and women residing in each federal electoral district who were 18–24, 25–34, 35–44, 45–64, and 65 or older were compiled as the weighting frame. The survey results were then compared to the same age and gender proportions to generate survey weights that sum to the size of the sample of respondents. Any respondents who refused to provide their age and/or gender were given a neutral weight so as not to skew the weighting proportions. Weights were based on 2021 Statistics Canada census data.
The table below shows the weighted and unweighted proportions for the variables used to create the weights:
Weighted Base n=400 | Unweighted Base n=400 | |
---|---|---|
Gender | ||
Man | 48% | 49% |
Woman | 52% | 51% |
Age | ||
18 to 24 | 10% | 8% |
25 to 34 | 14% | 9% |
35 to 44 | 16% | 11% |
45 to 64 | 36% | 40% |
65 or older | 24% | 33% |
Probability telephone surveys of the Canadian public often underrepresent younger Canadians and overrepresent older Canadians. In this survey, younger electors (those under 45 years of age) were underrepresented in the final survey sample and older electors (those 45 years of age and older) were overrepresented. The survey weights correct for this issue. This serves to reduce age-based bias resulting from uneven survey non-response should it be present, but it does not necessarily eliminate all non-response bias. Weighting respondents cannot correct for non-response bias that might be present if, for a given age, electors who responded to the survey differ in their views on the issues addressed in the study from those who did not respond to the survey. It is not known, however, whether there is any such difference.
Good afternoon/evening. My name is ... and I am calling from [...], a public opinion research company. Today we are conducting a study on behalf of Elections Canada. Please be assured that we are not selling or soliciting anything.
[IF ASKED]: The survey will take about 15 minutes to complete.
[IF ASKED ABOUT THE LEGITIMACY OF THE SURVEY]: If you would like to ensure that this survey is run by Elections Canada, you can call their toll-free number at 1-800-463-6868. Their hours of operation are Monday to Friday, from 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. (Eastern time). You can also contact Alethea Woods, from Phoenix Strategic Perspectives, at 613-260-1700.
[IF ASKED ABOUT THE NATIONAL DO NOT CALL LIST]: Calls made for the purpose of market research, polls or surveys are not considered telemarketing calls. Organizations making these types of calls are not required to register with the National Do Not Call List. The National Do Not Call List toll-free telephone number is 1-866-580-3625.
[IF ASKED ABOUT ELECTIONS CANADA]: The Elections Canada website is at elections.ca. The toll-free telephone number for Elections Canada is 1-800-463-6868. Their hours of operation are Monday to Friday, from 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. (Eastern time).
I would like to speak to the person in your household who is a Canadian citizen, is at least 18 years old, and who has had the most recent birthday. Would that be you?
I would like to speak to someone who is a Canadian citizen and is at least 18 years old. Does that describe you?
Please note that this call may be recorded for quality control or training purposes. By taking part in this survey, you consent to the use of your answers for research and statistical purposes. Any personal information collected is subject to the federal Privacy Act and will be held in strict confidence. Elections Canada will not use your responses to identify you, and none of your opinions will be attributed to you personally in any way. The anonymous database of all responses may be shared with external researchers under the strict condition that no personal information is ever distributed or made public.
Between November 6, 2022 and December 12, 2022 did you live in the federal riding of MISSISSAUGA-LAKESHORE?
IF NO: Unfortunately, this survey must be completed by Canadian citizens who lived in this riding and were eligible to vote in the December 12, 2022 federal by-election. THANK AND DISCONTINUE.
IF ANSWERS SPONTANEOUSLY THAT LIVED IN RIDING FOR ONLY PART OF REVISION PERIOD: Unfortunately, this survey must be completed by Canadian citizens who lived in this riding for the entire revision period (November 6, 2022 through December 12, 2022), and were eligible to vote in the December 12, 2022 federal by-election. THANK AND DISCONTINUE.
IF UNSURE: REVIEW LIST OF COMMUNITIES IN THE RIDING WITH RESPONDENT TO DETERMINE IF HE/SHE WAS A RESIDENT OF THE RIDING. IF SO, CONTINUE. IF NOT, DISCONTINUE USING LANGUAGE IN CODE 02. LIST OF COMMUNITIES ATTACHED.
IF UNSURE (2): INTERVIEWER TO USE ELECTIONS CANADA'S ONLINE VOTER INFORMATION SERVICE TO VERIFY RIDING BY POSTAL CODE (http://www.elections.ca/scripts/vis/finded).
May I confirm that you are a Canadian citizen?
[If Landline] IF NO: This survey must be completed by Canadian citizens who were at least 18 years old on December 12, 2022. Would there be someone in your household who is a Canadian citizen and was at least 18 years old on 12 December, 2022? IF YES ASK TO SPEAK TO THAT PERSON.
In what year were you born?
[DO NOT READ]
Record year: [4- digit number; min. 1905, max. 2022]
[Compute Age=2022-YOB]
[If Age<18, TERMINATE AND GO TO THNK2]
[Show if YOB=99]
Would you be willing to indicate in which of the following age categories you belong?
[Do not read]
99. Prefer not to say [Terminate AND GO TO THNK2]
[Show if Age=18 or AgeGroup=01]
May I confirm that you were at least 18 years old on December 12, 2022?
[If Landline] IF NO: This survey must be completed by Canadian citizens who were at least 18 years old on December 12, 2022. Would there be someone in your household who is a Canadian citizen and was at least 18 years old on December 12, 2022? IF YES ASK TO SPEAK TO THAT PERSON.
[DO NOT READ]
[Ask all]
Did you know that a federal by-election took place on December 12, 2022 in your riding?
[DO NOT READ]
Now, I would like to ask you a few questions about voting in a federal by-election. Please answer to the best of your knowledge.
[Randomize order of next 2 questions]
If an elector is not registered on election day and wants to vote, can they register at the polling place and then vote immediately after?
[If asked about registration: "Registration means that your name is on the list of electors."]
[DO NOT READ]
Yes
Is it possible for Canadian electors to check, update or complete their voter registration on Elections Canada's website?
[If asked about registration: "Registration means that your name is on the list of electors."]
[DO NOT READ]
[Rotate KnowID_Identity and KnowID_Address]
In order to vote in a Canadian federal election, do voters have to present ...
A proof of IDENTITY?
[DO NOT READ]
A proof of ADDRESS?
[DO NOT READ]
To the best of your knowledge, what are the current ways that electors can vote in a federal election?
[DO NOT READ] – SELECT ALL THAT APPLY (MULTIPLE MENTIONS). PROBE CAREFULLY TO AVOID SUGGESTING ANSWERS WHICH WOULD GIVE AWAY THE LIST. AFTER EACH ANSWER, PROBE "Anything else?"
NOTES:
If AwareBy IS 02 OR 98 or 99; GO TO ByFairness
I would like to ask a few questions about the information you may have received in advance of the federal by-election.
During the campaign, did you receive a voter information card addressed to you personally and telling you where and when to vote?
[DO NOT READ]
Show if GotVIC IS 01
Was your name correct on the card you received?
[DO NOT READ]
Show if GotVIC IS 01
And was your address correct on the card?
[DO NOT READ]
Overall, how well informed do you feel you were about when, where and how to vote in the by-election?
READ SCALE
DO NOT READ
AdRecallA to E
During the federal by-election campaign, did you see or hear advertising from Elections Canada about where, when and how to vote...
ROTATE AdRecallA to AdRecallD
...on social media such as Facebook, Instagram or YouTube?
DO NOT READ
... when you were browsing websites or on a mobile application?
DO NOT READ. INCLUDES MENTIONS OF ONLINE NEWSPAPERS AND ARTICLES, "ON MY PHONE", WEATHER NETWORK.
... on the radio or an audio platform (such as Spotify)?
DO NOT READ
... in a local newspaper?
DO NOT READ
... in any other format?
DO NOT READ
What, if anything, did you do to make sure you were registered to vote in this federal by-election? Did you...?
[Read list; accept one response]
[If respondent gives multiple answers: code 01 ahead of 02 or 03, code 02 ahead of 03]
[DO NOT READ]
How did you make sure you were registered?
[Show if RegCheck=01-03]
[Do not read. Code up to 3 responses.]
[If respondent says they went online/checked website, probe to clarify if this is code 03 or 04.]
Many people don't or can't vote for a variety of reasons. Which of the following statement describes you?
[DO NOT READ]
Show if Voted IS 01 or 02 or 03
What is the main reason you did not vote?
[DO NOT READ – CODE 1 ANSWER]
Everyday life or health reasons
Pandemic-related reasons
Political reasons
Electoral process-related reasons
All other reasons
Show if ReasonDidNotVote IS 01 (Too busy)
You said you were too busy to vote. If you had to choose, which of the following most closely reflects your situation? Would it be...
[Randomize 01-03]
[READ]
[Do not read]
Show if ReasonDidNotVote IS 02 (Out of town / away from home)
Were you away from home for work or personal reasons?
[DO NOT READ]
IF RESPONDENT ASKS WHY
Elections Canada is working to improve its services for electors who are away from home on voting days.
Show if ReasonDidNotVote IS 02 (out of town / away from home)
Would you say that your travel was planned or unplanned?
[DO NOT READ]
IF RESPONDENT ASKS WHAT IS MEANT BY UNPLANNED
This means that the trip was not planned in advance—for example, you knew that you were leaving less than a week before you left.
IF RESPONDENT ASKS WHY WE WANT TO KNOW
Elections Canada is working to improve its services for electors who are out of town on voting days.
If Voted IS 01, 02, 03, 98 OR 99; GO TO ByFairness
Show if Voted IS 04
Which method did you use to vote? Was it...
[READ IN ORDER UNTIL RESPONDENT PROVIDES A RESPONSE – CODE ONE ANSWER ONLY]
[DO NOT READ]
IF RESPONDENT ASKS FOR CLARIFICATION AT ANSWER 03 "AT THE LOCAL ELECTIONS CANADA OFFICE"
Whenever there is an election, the official in charge of conducting the election in a riding opens an office. That office is open to the public for the duration of the campaign. Did you vote there before election day?
IF RESPONDENTS SAY THEY VOTED ONLINE, ASK FOR CLARIFICATION. VOTERS CAN APPLY ONLINE TO RECEIVE A BALLOT IN THE MAIL HOME.
Show section if VoteMethod IS 01, 02, 03
Do you remember approximately what time it was when you went to vote at the [Insert based on VoteMethod=01,02,03: polling station/advance polling station/local Elections Canada office]?
DO NOT READ
READ ONLY IF NECESSARY; CODE ONLY ONE RESPONSE
To the best of your knowledge, how long did it take you to travel to the [Insert based on VoteMethod=01,02,03: polling station/advance polling station/local Elections Canada office]?
[DO NOT READ]
Was the [Insert based on VoteMethod=01,02,03: polling station/advance polling station/local Elections Canada office] a very reasonable, somewhat reasonable, somewhat unreasonable, or very unreasonable distance from your home?
[DO NOT READ]
Would you say that the building where you voted was...?
READ SCALE
DO NOT READ
Thinking about the health and safety measures for COVID-19 that were in place at the [Insert based on VoteMethod=01,02,03: polling station/advance polling station/local Elections Canada office], would you say you felt very safe, somewhat safe, somewhat unsafe or very unsafe during your visit?
[Do not read]
If VoteSafety=03 or 04
Could you briefly describe why you did not feel safe with the COVID-19 measures that were in place?
DO NOT READ – CODE UP TO 3
To the best of your knowledge, how long did it take you to vote once you arrived at the [Insert based on VoteMethod=01,02,03: polling station/advance polling station/local Elections Canada office]?
DO NOT READ; RECORD TIME IN MINUTES
[Show if VoteTime=01 (i.e., if it's a number)]
Would you say that this was a reasonable amount of time?
DO NOT READ. QUESTION REFERS TO TIME SPENT TO VOTE
[Show If GotVIC=01 and VoteMethod=01,02,03]
Did you bring your voter information card with you to the [insert based on VoteMethod: 01 polling station, 02 advance polling station or 03 local Elections Canada office]?
DO NOT READ. CODE ONE ANSWER ONLY
[Show if VoteMethod=01 to 96]
Overall, was it very easy, somewhat easy, somewhat difficult or very difficult to meet the identification requirements when you voted?
[DO NOT READ]
NOTE: THIS QUESTION REFERS TO RESPONDENT'S OWN EXPERIENCE
[Show if VoteMethod=01,02,03,05]
Overall, were you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with the services provided by Elections Canada staff when you voted?
DO NOT READ
If ECStaffSat IS 03 OR 04
Is there a specific reason why you were not satisfied with the services provided by Elections Canada staff?
[open-ended]
Show if VoteMethod IS 01 to 96
Thinking about the paper ballot you used to vote in the by-election, was it very easy, somewhat easy, somewhat difficult or very difficult to complete your ballot?
[DO NOT READ]
If BallotEase IS 03 OR 04
Why was it difficult to complete your ballot?
[Do not read; accept multiple responses]
Show if VoteMethod IS 01 to 96
Overall, was it very easy, somewhat easy, somewhat difficult or very difficult to vote?
[DO NOT READ]
Show if VoteMethod=01-96
Overall, how satisfied were you with your voting experience? Would you say that you were...?
READ SCALE
DO NOT READ
[Ask all]
Thinking about the December 12 federal by-election, would you say that Elections Canada ran the election...?
EMPHASIZE "ELECTIONS CANADA"
READ SCALE
DO NOT READ
ByFairness IS 03 or 04
Is there a specific reason why you think Elections Canada ran the election unfairly?
DO NOT READ
[Open-ended]
What level of trust do you have in the accuracy of the election results in your riding? Is it...?
READ SCALE
DO NOT READ
ByTrust IS 03 or 04
Is there a specific reason your trust in the accuracy of the election results is low?
DO NOT READ
[Open-ended]
[Ask All]
These last few questions will allow us to compare the survey results among different groups of respondents. Your answers will remain anonymous and confidential.
For the purposes of this survey, could you please provide your gender?
READ LIST
What language do you speak most often at home?
READ LIST
Are you First Nations, Métis or Inuk (Inuit)?
[DO NOT READ LIST; IF MULTIPLE IDENTITIES, ASK "WHICH DO YOU PRIMARILY IDENTIFY AS"]
Indigenous IS 01 (No, not FN, Métis or Inuit (Inuk))
Were you born in Canada?
[Do not read]
CanBorn IS 02 (Not born in Canada)
In what year did you come to live in Canada?
[Do not read]
Record year: [4- digit number; validate that (CanYear >= YOB and CanYear<=2022) or CanYear=98-99]
What is your ethnic or cultural background?
Indigenous IS 01 (No, not FN, Métis or Inuit (Inuk))
[Do not read. Code only one reply.]
[Use 95 for multiple ethnicities that do not fall under one category; e.g., English-Chinese would be 95; German-Canadian would be 01.]
[If respondent will only say "Canadian", code as 01.]
[If unsure, code response in 96 "other"]
What is the highest level of education that you have reached?
[Do not read – code one response only]
What best describes your current employment status?
[If asked to clarify: "Are you, for example, working full-time, or in school, or retired?"]
[Do not read]
[Read] Elections Canada wants to ensure that its services are accessible to all Canadians who have the right to vote, including people who have difficulty doing some tasks or doing some daily activities.
How much difficulty, if any, do you have with ... [Read first item]?
Do you have no difficulty, some, a lot, or you cannot do this at all? [Be sure to read this scale entirely at least once.]
What about ... [Read next item]? [Repeat for all. Do not repeat scale unless asked.]
[If asked why Elections Canada needs this information: "Elections Canada wants to ensure that its services are accessible to all Canadians who have the right to vote, including people who have difficulty doing some tasks or doing some daily activities."]
[GRID] [ROWS; ROTATE]
_Hearing Hearing, even when using a hearing aid?
_Seeing Seeing, even when wearing glasses or contacts?
_Mobility Going up and down a flight of stairs without resting?
_Dexterity Using your fingers to grasp a small object like a pencil?
[COLUMNS]
[Do not read]
Thinking about your daily activities, how much difficulty, if any, do you have with ... [Read first item]?
Do you have no difficulty, some, a lot, or you cannot do most activities because of this? [Be sure to read this scale entirely at least once.]
What about ... [Read next item]? [Repeat for all. Do not repeat scale unless asked.]
[If asked why Elections Canada needs this information: "Elections Canada wants to ensure that its services are accessible to all Canadians who have the right to vote, including people who have difficulty doing some tasks or doing some daily activities"]
[GRID] [ROWS; ROTATE]
_Pain Chronic or recurring pain?
_Cognitive Learning, remembering or concentrating?
_Mentalhealth A mental health, psychological or emotional health condition?
_Development A developmental disability or disorder, for example Down syndrome or autism?
[COLUMNS]
[Do not read]
[Sum the valid levels (i.e. values of 0,1,4,7) of all TaskDifficulty and DailyDifficulty variables to compute a total DisabilityScore with a range of 0 to 56.]
[98 and 99 responses count as missing but should not exclude other row responses from being counted toward the DisabilityScore. If all TaskDifficulty and DailyDifficulty responses are 98 or 99, then DisabilityScore would be missing.]
[If DisabilityScore=0-1, DisabilityLevel=00 "No disability"]
[If DisabilityScore=2-3, DisabilityLevel=01 "Mild disability"]
[If DisabilityScore=4-6, DisabilityLevel=02 "Moderate disability"]
[If DisabilityScore=7-13, DisabilityLevel=03 "Severe disability"]
[If DisabilityScore>=14, DisabilityLevel=04 "Very severe disability"]
Including yourself, how many people usually live in your household?
[DO NOT READ]
[NUMBER; Min. value 1, max. value 20]
YOB IS MORE THAN 1900 AND LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 2003
Finally, we would like to know if you voted in the September 20, 2021, federal general election?
[READ]
[DO NOT READ]
That concludes the survey. This survey was conducted on behalf of Elections Canada. Thank you very much for your thoughtful feedback. It is much appreciated.
If you have any questions about this survey, you can contact Elections Canada through their website at elections.ca or call toll-free at 1-800-463-6868.
If you have any reason to believe that your personal information is not being handled in accordance with the Privacy Act, you have a right to complain to the Privacy Commissioner of Canada.
[If asked for contact information for the Privacy Commissioner:]
Toll-free: 1-800-282-1376 TTY: (819) 994-6591 Web: Go to www.priv.gc.ca and click "Report a concern"
NOT ELIGIBLE TO COMPLETE SURVEY
Thank you for your cooperation! Based on the information you have provided, unfortunately you are not eligible to complete the remainder of this survey.
Return to footnote 1 The response rate formula is as follows: [Response Rate=R/(U+IS+R)]. This means that the response rate is calculated as the number of responding units [R] divided by the number of unresolved [U] numbers plus in-scope [IS] non-responding households and individuals plus responding units [R].