Introduction, Survey of electors following the June 19, 2023, by-election in the districts of Winnipeg South Centre, Portage-Lisgar, Oxford, and Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount and the July 24, 2023, by-election in the district of Calgary Heritage
Background and Objectives
Elections Canada (EC) is an independent, non-partisan agency that reports directly to Parliament. The agency's mandate is to conduct federal general elections, by-elections, and referendums, administer the political financing provisions of the Canada Elections Act (CEA), monitor compliance, and enforce electoral legislation.
As part of its evaluation program, the agency wanted to conduct a survey of eligible electors following federal by-elections held on June 19, 2023, in the ridings of Winnipeg South Centre, Portage-Lisgar, Oxford, and Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount and on July 24, 2023, in the riding of Calgary Heritage. The purpose of conducting this survey following the by-elections was to obtain reliable survey data to evaluate electors' opinions, attitudes and knowledge of the agency's services and various aspects of their experience.
The objective of this survey was to evaluate electors':
- awareness of the by-election and different aspects of the voting process,
- sources of information about the by-election,
- impressions of different voting methods,
- experiences with communications from EC,
- experiences with voting in the by-election, and
- attitudes towards Elections Canada and the election results.
The results will be used to assist in evaluating and refining Elections Canada's programs and services to the electorate. They may also be used to help in developing the Chief Electoral Officer's reports to Parliament.
Methodology
A random digit dial (RDD) telephone survey was conducted with a sample of n=2,012 eligible electors in one of the five electoral districts that held a by-election on June 19 or July 24, 2023. Eligible electors were Canadian citizens, at least 18 years of age on polling day, who were residents of the electoral district from the first day of the by-election period until election day. The data collection took place in two waves that coincided with the dates of the by-elections: June 20 to July 12, 2023 (following the June 19 by-elections), and July 25 to August 8, 2023 (following the July 24 by-election).
An overlapping dual-frame (landline and wireless) sample was used to minimize coverage error. Those who declined to participate in the survey when contacted by telephone were offered the option of completing the survey through an online self-administered questionnaire. Eighty-nine electors completed the survey online; the rest did so over the telephone.
The survey data were weighted to accurately reflect the age and gender distribution of eligible electors. Based on a sample of this size, the overall results would have a maximum margin of error of ±2.2%, 19 times out of 20. The results for each electoral district would have a maximum margin of error of ±4.9%, 19 times out of 20. The maximum margins of error would be greater for results pertaining to subgroups of the total sample.
Notes to Reader
- The survey research relies on self-reported voter turnout, which is often overreported in public opinion surveys. In this survey, self-reported turnout was 74%, while the actual turnout rate across all by-elections among registered electors was 36%. A limitation of this research, therefore, is that it overrepresents voters in the survey sample. Two factors may be responsible for the overrepresentation of voters: 1) people who vote may be more likely than non-voters to participate in a study about voting (response bias), and 2) people who did not vote may report that they voted to present themselves in a more positive light (social desirability bias).
- For editorial purposes, the terms "electors" and "respondents" are used interchangeably to denote survey participants. The term "voters" denotes survey participants who reported having voted.
- All results in the report are expressed as percentages, unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not always add to 100% due to rounding or multiple mentions.
- Percentages in the report are rounded to the nearest whole number. When a sum of results is presented in the report (e.g., "somewhat satisfied" plus "very satisfied"), it has been calculated based on its unrounded parts. As a result, the rounded percentages for the separate parts may not sum to the reported percentage for the combined parts.
- The number of respondents changes throughout the report because questions were often asked of a sub-sample of respondents. Accordingly, readers should be aware of this and exercise caution when interpreting results based on smaller numbers of respondents.
- Subgroup differences are identified in the report where applicable. When reporting variations, only differences that are significant at the 95% confidence level and that pertain to a subgroup sample size of n=30 or greater are discussed in the report.
- If one or more categories in a subgroup are not mentioned in a discussion of subgroup differences, it can be assumed that significant differences were found only among the categories reported.
- If no subgroup differences are identified for a question, it can be assumed that there were no significant differences.