by Peter Phillips
BASF Plant Sciences has read the tea leaves and appears to have decided its long-term future prosperity is not going to be driven by the EU and its needs or interests. This announcement highlights three interrelated and important policy issues in the plant biotechnology sector. First, the global agri-food market continues to be fragmented. While development, production and trade in GM foods expanded in 2010 to 25 plant species grown on more than 148 million hectares by 15.4 million farmers world-wide in 29 producing countries (ISAAA 2011), the EU and many countries exporting to the EU remain only minimally engaged in GM crop production and trade. The two blocks of countries have the same basic processes and methods for assessing safety and risk, but make substantially different risk decisions based on alternate views of the appropriate role of biotechnology in the economy and society. Some trade between those two solitudes continues, but has seen frequent disruption, increased costs and significant uncertainty. Second, BASF would appear to have judged that public attitudes, which are at the root of this regulatory disconnect, are too wide apart and entrenched to lead to any near term change. All other things being equal, the majority of the exporting countries and key markets for traded food stuffs accept the value and need for cultivars developed with biotechnology. The risk is that both theory and evidence suggests that any country that slows technological change will ultimately jeopardize its competitiveness—given that the EU is the world's single largest producer of food, any significant shift in their production could have major impacts on global food security. Third, when firms face truncated, costly or uncertain markets, they in aggregate tend to invest less in serving that market. Individual firms do exactly what BASF has done—they look for more promising investment opportunities. These major shifts in focus often raise questions about where they should locate. Generally, firms move to places where there is an aggregation of competitors and collaborators, where the communities facilitate innovation and where innovators are tolerated and respected. Research Triangle Park in NC is one, but not the only site where this is possible. Saskatoon in Canada, St. Louis in the US mid-west, Ghent in Belgium and a number of sites in Asia, Latin America and Africa are emerging as key candidates for firms seeking to relocate . Canada is at the leading edge of trying to work around the inflexibilities in regulations, citizen perceptions and industry by developing a national co-existence policy. If successful, such a policy could facilitate multiple marketing streams. In a perfect world, we would have the processes in place to allow GM crops to co-exist with conventional, organic, industrial and other differentiated crops. If Canadian producers, industry, consumers and government are able to construct such a system, they may finally open up the global market to the optimal production and consumption of food, perhaps banishing food shortages forever. |
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