Specialists are getting older, working longer
CMAJ 1997;157:1180
© 1997 Canadian Medical Association
Among Canada's active physicians, 60% fall between the ages of 35 and 54. However, some specialties have a greater proportion of older physicians than others. CMA data show that almost half (49%) of all active general surgeons are older than 55. General internal medicine (41%), otolaryngology (40%) and obstetrics/gynecology (39%) are also relatively "old" specialties.
The 1995 specialty physician workforce study by the Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Canada revealed that specialists older than 55 remain very active professionally. Although they work fewer hours per week than younger physicians, 71.5% of general surgeons older than 55 and 73.4% of general internists work more than 40 hours per week.
CMA estimates concerning the future supply of physicians reveal that when the large cohort of physicians aged 35 to 54 begins to retire in 15 to 20 years, there will be a decrease in the overall physician supply (assuming graduating classes, immigration and emigration remain at their current levels). By 2011 there will be 1.62 physicians per 1000 population. The downward trend will continue until the end of the projection period in 2021, when it is estimated that there will be 1.39 physicians per 1000 population. In 1996 the ratio stood at 1.82:1000.
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