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Analysis & Commentary
Politicians facing cynical electorate as campaign opens
CBC poll suggests little has changed since last vote
There's good news and bad news for the more than 1,000 Canadians hoping to win a job in the House of Commons over the holiday season.
The good news: according to a poll conducted by Environics Research for the CBC, most Canadians - 62 per cent - said it's not important that their holiday season is being interrupted by an election campaign.
| Total | Rest Of Canada | Quebec |
|---|
| Very important | 17 | 17 | 15 |
| Somewhat important | 21 | 21 | 20 |
| Not important | 62 | 61 | 65 |
| DK/NA | 1 | 1 | 1 |
The bad news?
- Almost three-quarters of Canadians asked said they don't expect politicians to keep their promises once they're in power.
- 56 per cent expressed little or no confidence at all in federal political leaders.
- 63 per cent said all the federal political parties are pretty much the same when it comes to honesty and integrity - yet 94 per cent said honesty and integrity in government are either somewhat or very important in determining how they plan to vote.
On top of that, only 48 per cent of those asked said they were satisfied with the way things are going in the country today. That's virtually unchanged from a similar poll conducted as the 2004 campaign opened - a campaign that led to the country's first minority government in 25 years.
| Total | ROC | Quebec |
|---|
| Satisfied | 48 | 51 | 40 |
| Dissatisfied | 49 | 47 | 56 |
| DK/NA | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Key issues
Topping the list of issues on the minds of voters again is health care and the health care system. Everything else – taxes, the economy, the Sponsorship Scandal, poverty, the environment – was well back on the list of concerns.
In earlier polls – just before the last election and when the government nearly fell in May 2005 – the Sponsorship Scandal registered as a major concern of 10 per cent of those asked. In the pre-election poll – conducted three weeks after Justice John Gomery’s first report - it had fallen to a major concern of four per cent of those asked.
What do you think is the most important issue facing the country that the federal government should deal with?
| 2004 | 2005 May | 2005 Nov |
|---|
| Health care/health care system | 35 | 29 | 30 |
| Poor government/poor leadership (5)/government scandals,sponsorship issue, Gomery (4)/honesty (3)/corruption (1) | 14 | 23 | 13 |
| Taxes | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Economy | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| Education | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| Poverty/homelessness/hunger | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Environment/pollution | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Crime/law and order | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| All Others | 23 | 19 | 23 |
| DK/NA | 6 | 6 | 10 |
On the issue of health care, 96 per cent of those asked said it was very important or somewhat important in determining how they would vote. On the promise of a tax cut, 69 per cent said it was very important or somewhat important in determining how they would vote.
While crime/law and order was well down on the list of issues, it was second to health care in the city of Toronto, where it’s been the worst year on record for gun violence. Despite that, Toronto’s homicide rate is lower than that of Winnpeg, Edmonton and Vancouver. Ontario has the lowest crime rate of any province or territory in the country.
It matters who’s in Ottawa
Despite the apparent disillusionment with politicians and political parties, 59 per cent of those asked said it makes a big difference which political party is in power in Ottawa. But any one of the four parties that won seats last time looking for encouragement from that statistic may have to look further. There was little difference in the perceived ability of the parties to deal with most of the major issues raised in the poll.
The Liberals have lost some ground in their perceived ability to deal with the health-care issues facing the country. Before the last election, 32 per cent of those surveyed said Prime Minister Paul Martin's party was best suited to tackle that issue. In this poll, that number had fallen to 28 per cent - just ahead of the NDP (24 per cent) and the Conservatives (23 per cent).
On running a government with honesty and integrity, the New Democrats come out slightly ahead at 24 per cent (19 per cent in 2004). The Conservatives follow at 23 per cent (22 per cent in 2004). The Liberals are just behind at 21 per cent (22 per cent in 2004).
The Liberals hold strong leads in dealing with national unity and Quebec and with Canada-U.S. relations - but even those numbers are down from what they were just before the 2004 election.
Other key findings in the poll include:
- 51 per cent of Canadians believe the Liberal/NDP budget deal was a good thing.
- 66 per cent say the issue of same-sex marriage is settled and should not be addressed again.
- 54 per of Canadians believe Quebec sovereignty will be an issue in the campaign.
- 58 per cent of Quebecers say it is likely or somewhat likely that a majority of Quebecers would vote Yes in a sovereignty referendum.
What may concern the Liberals are findings relating to the Gomery Commission. Despite Justice John Gomery saying Prime Minister Martin did not know the details of the sponsorship program, 38 per cent of those surveyed said their opinion of Martin had gone down as a result of the findings of the commission. Fifty per cent said their opinion of the Liberal party had gone down.
Despite that, Martin came out on top when people were asked which party leader would make the best prime minister. He gained a couple of points from the beginning of the last campaign.
| 2003 Dec | 2004 June | 2005 June/July | 2005 Nov |
|---|
| Paul Martin | 60 | 29 | 32 | 31 |
| Stephen Harper | 7 | 24 | 21 | 20 |
| Jack Layton | 5 | 12 | 18 | 15 |
| Gilles Duceppe | 3 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| None | 6 | 8 | 12 | 11 |
| DK/NA | 14 | 17 | 8 | 15 |
Further evidence of a deeply split electorate - according to the poll - is that while 47 per cent of decided voters said it's time to defeat the Liberals, the same number said the country would still be better off under the Liberals than under the Conservatives.
Seventeen months after Canadians elected the first minority in a generation, their opinion of minority government has soured slightly. Going into the last campaign, 35 per cent of those asked said a minority government is better for the country than a majority. Going into this campaign, 31 per cent answered that way. Last time, 49 per cent believed the election would result in minority government. This time, 70 per cent feel that way.
As for the poll's take on how Canadians would vote if an election were held today, the numbers break down this way among those who told the pollsters they've decided how they will cast their ballot:
| Total | Atlantic | Quebec | Ontario | Prairies | B.C. |
|---|
| Liberal party | 35 | 56 | 22 | 44 | 22 | 36 |
| Cons. party | 30 | 22 | 8 | 32 | 56 | 34 |
| New Democratic Party | 20 | 23 | 9 | 22 | 22 | 28 |
| Bloc Québécois | 14 | - | 59 | - | - | - |
| Green party | 1 | - | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Here's the small print: 1,641 people were surveyed between Nov. 21 and 25 for this poll. The results are considered accurate within 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
A final note: the poll also suggests that those who hunger for a political career should not blame the media if their quest comes up short. Sixty per cent of the poll's respondents said the way radio, television, newspapers and magazines cover politics is generally fair and objective. In Quebec, 52 per cent felt that way.
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