The Economic
and Fiscal Record of the Past Decade"
Notes for an address
by the Honourable Stéphane Dion
President of the Privy Council and
Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs
Keynote address delivered at the annual Diplomatic Forum
Intercontinental Hotel
Toronto, Ontario
December 5, 2003
Check against delivery
We Canadians have a grand plan for our country: we want to have both American
dynamism and European quality of life. This dual objective prompts our
governments to maintain a competitive tax regime while financing a broad range
of public services. A competitive tax system, an extensive government role: this
is a difficult combination that only iron discipline can achieve. We lacked this
discipline during the 1970s and 1980s, so much so that our country found itself
in a precarious economic and fiscal situation in the early 1990s.
However, we have recovered. Over the past 10 years Canada has seen a spectacular economic
turnaround. Look at Table
1, which compares Canada’s budgetary situation in
1993 with that of today. In 1993 Canada recorded the largest deficit among the
G-7 countries after Italy. Our governments’ deficits represented 8.7% of our
economy. Today we are the only G-7 country with a surplus. Quite a contrast!
This budgetary turnaround for our federation was accomplished by both levels of
government (Table
2).
Of all the G-7 countries, Canada is the one that has achieved the greatest reduction in
its debt load over the past few years (Table
3). There has been a very marked
decline in the federal debt burden on our economy (Table 4) which has allowed us
to significantly reduce the costs of servicing the federal debt (Table
5).
How were governments able to bring about this fiscal turnaround? Was it by increasing
taxes, as we tend to believe? In fact, governments in Canada now levy less tax
and income tax relative to the size of our economy than they did 10 years ago
(Table 6).
Instead what has happened is that our governments have been on a slimming-down program.
They have reduced the fiscal burden of their expenditures in relation to the
size of the economy. Table 7 shows that this reduction was particularly
significant in Canada relative to the other OECD countries.
Program expenditures by the federal government represented 16% of GDP in 1993. As
Table
8 shows, these were brought down to about 12%, their lowest level since 1949! In
fact, in relation to the size of the economy, total federal expenditures are now
much lower than American federal government expenditures (Table
9).
The federal government reduced the burden of its expenditures while at the same time
protecting the Canadian social fabric and investing in the skills of our labour
force, in our knowledge economy and in the excellence of our universities. In
particular, it made a huge investment in research and development and
significantly increased its direct expenditures in postsecondary education.
Since 1997 it has increased its budgetary effort by 40% in these two sectors
(Table 10).
Of course, Mr. Chrétien’s government cannot take all the credit for Canada’s
spectacular fiscal turnaround since 1993. This must be seen as the result of the
tireless work put in by all Canadians. We got our economy back on its feet and
we are now reaping the benefits. From 1984 to 1993, during those years when our
governments were accumulating deficits, Canada had an average ranking among G-7
countries in terms of economic growth. In comparison, in the years from 1994 to
2003 we have become the best in this ordering (Table
11).
Similarly, Canada had an average ranking in terms of employment growth during the Mulroney
years. During the Chrétien years we have become by far the best (Table
12). The
situation has improved to such an extent that our employment rate is now similar
to that of the United States (Table
13).
In fact, the Canadian economy really started to improve from 1996 onward. Table 14 shows
the marked increase in Canadian household income over the past few years.
Another positive result: the proportion of Canadians considered by Statistics
Canada to have a low income has seen a sustained decline since 1996. As shown by
Table 15, this proportion was 14% in 1996 and by 2001 it had dropped to 10.4%.
The same encouraging trend is apparent for families with children, single parent
families, and the elderly.
What happened in 1996 to explain this incredible improvement in our economy’s
performance? Ah, yes, I know, I became Minister in 1996. That explains
everything! Seriously, from 1996, our macroeconomic policy, based on budgetary
discipline and targeted investments, started to produce dividends.
We must now maintain this necessary fiscal prudence. Admittedly, the latest economic and
fiscal update forecasts a 6.5% increase in program expenditures this year
(2003-2004), which amounts to $8.7 billion in additional expenditures. However,
a much more modest increase is forecast for the following year (Table
16). You
have heard the assurances of our next Prime Minister, the Honourable Paul
Martin, indicating that repayment of the federal debt is one of his priorities.
Furthermore, this is what the latest budget estimates indicate: we will continue
to reduce the federal debt burden relative to the size of the economy (Table
17).
It is true that the budgetary situation of the provinces is not as strong as the
federal government’s situation. In a federation such as ours, it is important
that constitutional partners help each other. This is why, over the next few
years, federal transfers to the provinces will grow more rapidly than provincial
health expenditures or the Canadian economy (Table 18).
In conclusion, our country’s public finances have never been so healthy and
Canadian household income has never been so high. This has been achieved through
the efforts, skills and mutual co-operation exhibited by Canadians from all
provinces and all territories. We now have to stay the course, while at the same
time ensuring that our new initiatives fit in with the sound financial
discipline that has brought us such success. This is the firm intention of our
next Prime Minister, Paul Martin. This financial discipline is essential to
further the solidarity of the Canadian federation and to make the Canadian
economy ever more competitive.
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