Prepared for Elections Canada
Contract Number: 05005-180838-001-CY
Contract Value: $69,986.50 (including HST)
Award Date: 2019-02-20
Delivery Date: 2019-04-11
Registration Number: POR 127-18
For more information on this report, contact Elections Canada at rop-por@elections.ca.
Ce rapport est aussi disponible en français.
Supplier name: Phoenix Strategic Perspectives Inc.
April 2019
This public opinion research report presents the results of a telephone survey conducted to help evaluate the February 25, 2019, federal by-elections in the electoral districts of Outremont (Quebec), York–Simcoe (Ontario) and Burnaby South (British Columbia).
This publication may be reproduced for non-commercial purposes only. Prior written permission must be obtained from Elections Canada. For more information on this report, contact Elections Canada at rop-por@elections.ca.
Catalogue Number: SE3-105/2019E-PDF
International Standard Book Number (ISBN): 978-0-660-31981-0
Related publications (registration number: POR 127-18):
Catalogue Number: SE3-105/2019F-PDF
ISBN: 978-0-660-31982-7
Elections Canada commissioned Phoenix Strategic Perspectives Inc. (Phoenix SPI) to conduct research to help evaluate the February 25, 2019, federal by-elections in the electoral districts of Outremont (Quebec), York–Simcoe (Ontario) and Burnaby South (British Columbia).
Elections Canada is an independent, non-partisan agency that reports directly to Parliament. The agency is mandated to conduct federal general elections, by-elections and referendums, administer the political financing provisions of the Canada Elections Act, monitor compliance and enforce electoral legislation.
As part of its evaluation program, the agency wanted to conduct a survey of eligible electors in the electoral districts of Outremont (Quebec), York–Simcoe (Ontario) and Burnaby South (British Columbia), where by-elections were held on February 25, 2019. The purpose of the survey was to obtain reliable survey data to evaluate electors' opinions, attitudes and knowledge of the agency's services and various aspects of their experience.
The research objectives were to measure electors' opinions on various election-related issues and to assist in evaluating and refining Elections Canada's programs and services to the electorate. More specifically, the survey aimed to assess the following aspects:
The results will be used to assist in evaluating and refining Elections Canada's programs and services to the electorate. They may also help in developing the Chief Electoral Officer's reports to Parliament.
A 13-minute, random-digit-dial telephone survey was conducted with 1,202 eligible electors. Eligible electors were Canadian citizens, at least 18 years of age on polling day (February 25, 2019), who were residents of the electoral district (i.e., had an address of ordinary residence in the electoral district) from the first day of the by-election period until election day. Of the sample of 1,202 surveys, 882 were completed in English, and 320 were completed in French.
An overlapping dual-frame (landline and cellphone) sample was used to minimize coverage error. The ratio of landline to cellphone numbers varied by federal riding. Those who declined to participate in the survey when contacted by telephone were offered the possibility of completing the survey through an online, self-administered questionnaire instead of a telephone interview. Twelve respondents agreed to participate using the online questionnaire; however, none of these electors completed the online survey. As a result, all completed surveys were conducted over the telephone.
The survey data was weighted to accurately reflect the age and gender distribution of eligible electors. The data collection was conducted from February 26 to March 12, 2019. Based on a sample of this size, the overall results can be considered accurate to within ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20. The results for each electoral riding can be considered accurate to within ±4.9%, 19 times out of 20. For a more complete description of the methodology, refer to Annex 1.
The contract value was $69,986.50 (including HST).
I hereby certify, as a Senior Officer of Phoenix SPI, that the deliverables fully comply with the government of Canada's political neutrality requirements, outlined in the Communications Policy of the government of Canada and the Procedures for Planning and Contracting Public Opinion Research. Specifically, the deliverables do not contain any reference to electoral voting intentions, political party preferences, standings with the electorate or ratings of the performance of a political party or its leader.
Alethea Woods
President
Phoenix Strategic Perspectives Inc.
A total of 95% of electors surveyed said they were aware that a federal by-election took place on February 25, 2019, in their riding.
long description of Figure 1: Awareness of By-election
Q1. Did you know that a federal by-election took place on February 25th, 2019, in your riding? Base: n = 1,202: all respondents.
*Includes those respondents – 0.3% – who said "Don't know."
Awareness of the by-election was higher among:
A split sample was used to test electors' recall of Elections Canada advertisements for the February 25, 2019, federal by-election. One subset of respondents (n = 574) was asked whether they recalled any advertising or communications from Elections Canada about how, when and where to vote, a standard question used in previous post-electoral phone surveys. The other subset (n = 628) was asked whether they recalled any advertising or communications from Elections Canada on social media, when browsing or on a mobile application, on radio, in a local newspaper or in any other format. Respondents who indicated they had seen or heard something about how, when and where to vote through at least one source were coded as having recalled Elections Canada advertising or communications.
In both samples, a majority of electors recalled advertisements (54% and 76%, respectively). However, the second formulation resulted in a higher proportion of respondents expressing recall.
long description of Figure 2: Recall of Elections Canada Advertisements
Q29a. During the election period, did you see, hear or read any advertising or communications from Elections Canada about how, when and where to vote in the by-election? Base: n = 574: all respondents. SPLIT SAMPLE
Q30a-e [computed variable]. During the by-election campaign, have you seen or heard communications from Elections Canada about how, when and where to vote in the by-election? Base: n = 628: all respondents. SPLIT SAMPLE
The likelihoodFootnote 1 of recalling any advertising or communications from Elections Canada was higher among:
The subset of respondents from the first split sample who recalled advertising or communications from Elections Canada (n = 302) were asked where they saw, heard or read about the February 25, 2019, by-election. These electors mostly recalled the following kinds of advertising or communications from Elections Canada:
One in five (21%) mentioned political advertising by candidates or parties, while smaller numbers pointed to radio (16%), Facebook (14%) or websites other than Elections Canada (13%). Other sources were identified infrequently (3% or less) and included word of mouth, YouTube, the Elections Canada website, Instagram and Twitter.
long description of Figure 3: Source of Recall of Elections Canada Advertising (1)
Q29b. Where did you see, hear or read about it? Base: n = 302: split-sample respondents who recalled communications from Elections Canada. (Multiple responses accepted.) [Dk/nr: 5%]
As was the case with previous by-election surveys, a number of respondents (25%) said they recalled seeing Elections Canada ads on television when there were no such ads during the by-election. This could be due to several factors, including confusion with other electoral communications, such as partisan advertising or news reports about the by-election in the ridings.
The second subset of respondents (n = 628) was asked about specific information sources. These electors were most likely to recall advertising from Elections Canada in a local newspaper (33%) or on the radio (31%). Following this, approximately one-quarter each recalled advertising on social media (24%) or when they were browsing or on a mobile application (24%).
long description of Figure 4: Source of Recall of Elections Canada Advertising (2)
Q30. During the by-election campaign, have you seen or heard advertising from Elections Canada about where, when and how to vote: a) on social media such as Facebook, Twitter or Instagram? / b) when you were browsing or on a mobile application? / c) on the radio? / d) in a local newspaper? Base: n = 628: all respondents. SPLIT SAMPLE
There were no significant differences by riding in the likelihood of recalling Elections Canada advertising and communications through these sources. However, residents of Outremont were more likely than residents of the other ridings to report not having seen or heard anything about the by-election.
Notable subgroup differences include the following:
Age-related differences include the following:
The vast majority (92%) of respondents aware of the by-election felt informed about how, when and where to vote for the February 25, 2019, federal by-election, with nearly three-quarters (73%) saying they felt very informed.
long description of Figure 5: Knowledge of How, When and Where to Vote
Q28. Overall, how well informed do you feel you were about how, when and where to vote? Base: n = 1,159: those aware of the by-election. [Dk/nr: 1%]
Notable subgroup differences include the following:
In addition, the following respondents were more likely to feel very informed:
A total of 12% of electors aware of the by-election said they visited the Elections Canada website during the campaign. Of those who visited the website, most (86%) were satisfied with the information it provided, with nearly half (49%) saying they were very satisfied.
long description of Figure 6: Elections Canada Website
Q31 [LEFT]. Did you visit Elections Canada's website during the campaign? Base: n = 1,202: all respondents.
[Dk/nr: <0.4%]
Q32 [RIGHT]. Overall, how satisfied were you with the information on Elections Canada's website? Would you say ...?
Base: n = 116: all who visited the site. [Dk/nr: 1%]
The likelihood of visiting the Elections Canada website during the campaign was higher among:
Very few (4%) of the electors aware of the by-election said they contacted Elections Canada during the campaign. Many (77%) of those who did were satisfied with the information they received, including 67% who were very satisfied.
long description of Figure 7: Contact with Elections Canada
Q33 [LEFT]. Did you contact Elections Canada during the campaign? Base: n = 1,202: all respondents. [Dk/nr: <0.5%]
Q34 [RIGHT]. Overall, how satisfied were you with the information provided when you contacted Elections Canada? Would you say ...? Base: n = 45: respondents who contacted Elections Canada. [Dk/nr: 8%]
There were no significant differences by riding when it came to contacting Elections Canada during the campaign.
Approximately 9 in 10 (89%) of those who were aware of the federal by-election said they received their VIC.
long description of Figure 8: Receipt of Voter Information Card
Q4. During the campaign, did you receive a voter information card addressed to you personally and telling you where and when to vote? Base: n = 1,159: those who said they were aware of the by-election.
The following groups of electors were more likely to say they received a VIC:
Nearly all electors who received a VIC reported it had the correct name (97%) and address (99%).
The following groups of electors were more likely to say their VIC had the correct name:
Nine in 10 electors (90%) who voted at an Elections Canada office, advance poll or polling station on election day said they brought their VIC with them.
long description of Figure 9: Voter Information Card – Brought to Vote
Q21. Did you bring your voter information card with you to the polling station/advance polling station/local Elections Canada office? Base: n = 766: respondents who voted at an advance poll or at a polling station on election day. [Dk/nr: <0.5%]
The following groups of electors were more likely to have brought their VIC to the polling station:
Two-thirds (64%) of electors who did not receive a VIC during the campaign did nothing to find out whether they were registered to vote in the federal by-election. Most people who took action to find out whether they were registered did so by calling the 1-800 Elections Canada phone number (8%), consulting the Elections Canada website (7%) or finding out at the polling station or an Elections Canada office (7%). Very few took other steps.
long description of Figure 10: Steps Taken to Find Out Whether Registered to Vote
Q7. What did you do to find out whether you were registered to vote in this by-election? Base: n = 87: respondents who did not receive a VIC. [Dk/nr: 7%]
There were no significant differences by riding.
Three-quarters of electors (76%) said they knew that they need to be registered in order to vote in a Canadian federal election. Another 15% said they did not need to be registered, and 9% were unsure.
long description of Figure 11: Awareness of Registration to Vote
Q8. To the best of your knowledge, do electors need to be registered on the list of electors to vote in a Canadian federal election? Base: n = 1,202: all respondents.
The likelihood of knowing that electors need to be registered on the list of electors to vote in a Canadian federal election was higher among:
The following groups of electors were more likely to say they did not know whether electors need to be registered:
In addition, electors who completed university were more likely to incorrectly answer "No" to this question (18%) compared to electors with some post-secondary education or who completed college (11%).
A total of 6 in 10 (61%) were aware that electors can register at the polling station and then vote immediately afterwards. In contrast, 18% were not aware that this is possible, and one in five (21%) said they did not know one way or the other.
long description of Figure 12: Election Day Registration
Q9ab. Electors must be registered to vote in a federal election. If an elector is not registered on election day and wants to vote, can they register at the polling place and then vote immediately after? Base: n = 1,202: all respondents.
Notable subgroup differences include the following:
A split sample was used to test awareness of online voter registration.Footnote 2 Half the respondents (n = 600) were asked whether electors could use an "online voter registration service on Elections Canada's website," a question previously used in post-electoral phone surveys. As this question has always yielded a high proportion of "Don't know" responses from electors, a simplified formulation was developed and asked of the other half (n = 602) of the sample (see precise wording of questions in the graph below).
While a majority of electors expressed awareness of this option regardless of the formulation of the question, the size of the majority varied. As the graph below indicates, a small majority (54%) claimed to be aware when asked, "To the best of your knowledge could electors use an online voter registration service on Elections Canada's website to check, update or complete their voter registration during the last by-election?" By contrast, two-thirds (66%) claimed to be aware when asked, "To the best of your knowledge is it possible for Canadian electors to check, update or complete their voter registration on Elections Canada's website?"
long description of Figure 13: Awareness of Online Voter Registration
Q10a [LEFT]. To the best of your knowledge, could electors use an Online Voter Registration Service on Elections Canada's website to check, update or complete their voter registration during the last by-election? Base: n = 600: all respondents.
SPLIT SAMPLE
Q10b [RIGHT]. To the best of your knowledge, is it possible for Canadian electors to check, update or complete their voter registration on Elections Canada's website? Base: n = 602. SPLIT SAMPLE
The results of this split-sample test confirm that the second formulation of the question is easier to understand as it resulted in a smaller proportion of respondents who indicated they did not know.
Regardless of question formulation:Footnote 3
Two-thirds (66%) of electors who were aware of the by-election held on February 25, 2019, in their riding said they voted in it.
long description of Figure 14: Voter Participation in February 25, 2019, By-election
Q2. Which of the following statements describes you? Base: n = 1,159: those who said they were aware of the by-election.
[Dk/nr: <0.5%]
The likelihood of voting was higher among:
Among respondents who said they did not vote in the by-election (n = 342), 4 in 10 (41%) said they did not vote due to everyday life and health reasons. In addition, one in three (29%) reported not voting due to political reasons and 5% for reasons related to the electoral process. The "Other reasons" category included forgetting to vote, bad weather, the federal general election this year (e.g. will vote then, so there is no need to do so now) and a family emergency, among others.
long description of Figure 15: Main Reasons for Not Voting – Themes
Q3. What is the main reason you did not vote? Base: n = 342: respondents who did not vote. [Dk/nr: 2%]
The table below provides a detailed breakdown of the reasons why respondents did not vote during the February 25, 2019, federal by-election.
| Reason for Not Voting | % |
|---|---|
| Everyday life or health reason | 41 |
| Too busy | 23 |
| Out of town | 11 |
| Illness or disability | 7 |
| Political reason | 29 |
| Not interested in politics | 10% |
| Did not like candidates/parties/campaign | 8 |
| Felt voting would not make a difference | 5 |
| Lack of information about campaign issues and parties' positions | 3 |
| Did not know who to vote for | 3 |
| Electoral process –related reason | 5 |
| Transportation problem/polling station too far | 2 |
| Issues with VIC | 2 |
| Lack of information about voting process (e.g. when/where to vote) | 1 |
| Not on voters list | 0.3 |
| Other reason | 24 |
| Forgot to vote | 9 |
| Bad weather | 8 |
| Other reasons | 7 |
[Dk/nr: 2%].
Notable subgroup differences include:
Just over one-quarter of the respondents who said they were out of town (n = 35)Footnote 4 during the election were away due to work commitments (28%), while almost two-thirds (64%) were away for personal reasons. The vast majority (92%) of those who were out of town during the election had previously planned their trip.
Of the respondents who were too busy to vote (n = 72), just over half (54%) said they simply had other priorities that day. One-quarter (25%) had unexpected plans that deterred them from voting, and the rest (16%) said they do not have time in their daily schedule to vote.
A split-sample approach was used to test questions designed to measure electors' knowledge of current voting methods. One sample of respondents (n = 615; split sample 1) was asked, in an open-ended manner, to identify the current ways that electors can vote in a federal election. The other sample (n = 587; split sample 2) was asked a set of two questions. First, they were asked how someone can vote in a federal election, and then they were asked whether there are ways to cast a ballot ahead of time (see precise wording of questions in the graph below).
As the graph below indicates, both formulations yielded similar results overall. The one noteworthy difference is that the second formulation resulted in a higher proportion of respondents saying they do not know (specifically, 8% responded this way to the first question in the set and 15% to the second question).
long description of Figure 17: Knowledge of Voting Methods
Q11a. To the best of your knowledge, what are the current ways that electors can vote in a federal election? (Multiple responses accepted.) Base: n = 615. SPLIT SAMPLE
Q11b/c. If someone wants to vote in a federal election, how can they do so? Anything else? / Now let's say someone wants to vote but is not available on election day, are there ways to cast a ballot ahead of time? IF SOMEONE JUST SAYS "Yes," ASK "OK, how would you do that?" (Multiple responses accepted.) Base: n = 587. SPLIT SAMPLE
Notable subgroup differences include the following:Footnote 5
Additionally:
Three-quarters (75%) of electors who said they voted in the by-election reported doing so at a polling station on election day, while one-quarter (24%) reported going to an advance polling station to vote. Very few reported voting at an Elections Canada office, by mail or at home.
long description of Figure 18: Methods Used to Vote
Q12: Which method did you use to vote? Was it ...? Base: n = 815: all respondents who voted.
There were no significant differences by riding in the method electors used to vote.
Electors who voted on election day were more likely to be:
Electors who voted at an advance polling station were more likely to be:
A split-sample approach was used to measure awareness of identification requirements for voting. Traditionally, post-electoral surveys ask respondents whether or not they need proof of identity to vote, and then the question is repeated for proof of address. In previous post-electoral surveys, this formulation resulted in very high awareness levels for both requirements. However, survey pre-tests suggested that some respondents did not perceive a difference between the two (e.g. between proof of address and proof of identity). Thus, a second version of this question was developed, asking respondents whether, to the best of their knowledge, electors need proof of identity, proof of address, both or none. The two formulations were compared using the aforementioned split-sample experiment.
As has been the case with previous surveys, the first formulation found that the vast majority of respondents think that electors have to present proof of identity (95%) or proof of address (92%) in order to vote in a Canadian election. Of those asked the second formulation, nearly 8 in 10 (79%) correctly responded that both proof of identity and proof of address are required to vote in a Canadian federal election. A total of 17% indicated that only proof of identity was needed, 2% that only proof of address was needed and less than 1% that neither was needed.
long description of Figure 19: Awareness of Voter Identification Requirements
Q14b [LEFT]. Do voters have to present a proof of IDENTITY in order to vote in a Canadian federal election?
SPLIT SAMPLE: n = 592.
Q15 [LEFT]. Do voters have to present a proof of ADDRESS in order to vote in a Canadian federal election?
SPLIT SAMPLE: n = 592.
Q14a [RIGHT]. In order to vote in a Canadian federal election, must electors provide ...? SPLIT SAMPLE: n = 610.
The results of this split-sample test confirm those of the three previous by-election survey results.Footnote 6 Furthermore, these results confirm that the new formulation leads to results that better reflect respondents' grasp of identification requirements.
The likelihood of saying that electors must provide proof of both identity and address was higher among the following subgroups:Footnote 7
There were no significant differences by riding in voter identification awareness.
Virtually all respondents who voted in the by-election found it easy to meet the identification requirements, with the vast majority (92%) describing it as very easy.
long description of Figure 20: Ease of Meeting Voter Identification Requirements
Q16. Overall, how easy was it to meet the identification requirements? Would you say that it was ...? Base: n = 806: respondents who voted at an advance poll, at a polling station on election day or at an Elections Canada office. [Dk/nr: <0.5%]
The likelihood of saying it was very easy to meet the identification requirements was higher among:
More than 9 in 10 (96%) respondents who voted in the by-election said it was at least somewhat easy to vote, including 84% who said it was very easy.
long description of Figure 21: Ease of Voting
Q13. Overall, how easy was it to vote? Would you say it was ...? Base: n = 815: respondents who voted and identified a voting method. [Dk/nr: 1%].
The following subgroups were more likely to say it was very easy to vote:
As is the case with other by-election surveys, nearly everyone surveyed who voted in the by-election said the polling station, advance polling station or Elections Canada office was a convenient distance from their home (96%), the facility was suitable (97%) and there were enough signs within the facility to help them find where to go to vote (95%).
The likelihood of saying the polling station was a convenient distance from their home was higher among residents of York–Simcoe (99%) compared to residents of Outremont (96%) and Burnaby South (94%).
The likelihood of having difficulty reaching the polling station was higher among:
A total of 79% of all voters surveyed (n = 802) reported voting between noon and 8:30 p.m.
Of the voters who voted on election day (n = 588), one in five (21%) reported doing so in the morning (from the opening of the polls until noon), 27% said they voted in the afternoon (between noon and 4 p.m.) and nearly half (47%) claimed to have voted in the evening (from 4 p.m. until the close of polls).
long description of Figure 22: Time of Day Voted – Election Day
Q22. Do you remember approximately what time it was when you went to vote? Base: n = 588: respondents who voted on election day. [Dk/nr: 4%]
Notes: Election day hours were from 8:30 a.m. to 8:30 p.m. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
There were no significant differences by riding when it came to what time of day voters voted.
Seven in 10 (71%) of those who voted at an advance polling station (n = 214) on February 15, 16, 17 and 18, 2019, reported doing so in the afternoon (between noon and 4 p.m.). The single greatest proportion of these voters (27%) said they voted between noon and 1 p.m.
long description of Figure 23: Time of Day Voted – Advance Polls
Q22. Do you remember approximately what time it was when you went to vote? Base: n = 214: respondents who voted at an advance poll. [Dk/nr: 10%]
Note: Advance polling stations were open from noon to 8 p.m. on February 15, 16, 17 and 18, 2019.
Three-quarters (75%) of all respondents who voted in the by-election said voting took them five minutes or less, with most of the rest saying it took them somewhere between 6 and 15 minutes.
Among those who voted at an advance polling station, 62% said it took them less than five minutes to vote. In comparison, 79% of those who voted on election day indicated that it took them less than five minutes to vote.
long description of Figure 24: Length of Time to Vote
Q23. To the best of your knowledge, how long did it take you to vote at the polling station/advance polling station/local Elections Canada office? This does not include travel time. Base: n = 803: respondents who voted at a polling station on election day.
A full 97% of voters found the time taken to vote to be reasonable. The likelihood of saying the time taken to vote was reasonable was higher among residents of York–Simcoe (99%) compared to residents of Outremont (96%).
Nearly everyone (99%) who voted in the by-election was satisfied with the services provided by Elections Canada staff (with 87% saying they were very satisfied).
long description of Figure 25: Satisfaction with Elections Canada Staff
Q27. Overall, how satisfied were you with the services provided by Elections Canada staff when you voted? Would you say ...? Base: n = 806: respondents who voted at an advance poll, at a polling station on election day or at an Elections Canada office. [Dk/nr: <0.5%]
The likelihood of being very satisfied with the services provided by Elections Canada staff was higher among:
Virtually all voters were satisfied with the service they received in their chosen official language.
Nearly all respondents who voted in the by-election (97%) were satisfied with their overall voting experience (with 80% saying they were very satisfied).
long description of Figure 26: Satisfaction with Elections Canada Staff
Q35. Overall, how satisfied were you with your voting experience? Would you say ...? Base: n = 815: all respondents who voted. [Dk/nr: <1%]
The following subgroups were more likely to be very satisfied with their voting experience:
Two variations of a question about the fairness of how Elections Canada runs federal by-elections were asked of respondents. Half were asked the following question: "Thinking about the February 25, 2019, federal by-election, would you say that Elections Canada ran the election ...?" The other half was asked, "Thinking about federal by-elections in general, would you say that Elections Canada runs elections ...?"
long description of Figure 27: Perceptions of Elections Canada's Fairness
Q36a [LEFT]. Thinking about the February 25th, 2019, federal by-election, would you say that Elections Canada ran the election ...? Base: n = 624. SPLIT SAMPLE
Q36b [RIGHT]. Thinking about federal by-elections in general, would you say that Elections Canada runs elections ...?
Base: n = 578. SPLIT SAMPLE
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
The more specific formulation (i.e. focusing on the specific by-election) found a substantial majority of respondents (85%) thinking that Elections Canada ran the election fairly (with 65% saying very fairly) and a relatively high proportion of respondents who did not know (12%). The more general formulation resulted in a larger majority (93%) saying that Elections Canada runs elections fairly (65% saying very fairly) and a noticeably lower proportion of electors saying they did not know (6%). This is the same effect that was evident in the previous post by-election survey.
Regardless of formulation, residents of Burnaby South (91% specific formulation and 97% general formulation) were more likely than residents of Outremont (82% and 87%, respectively) to say that Elections Canada ran the by-election in their riding fairly.
A split-sample approach was also used to survey respondents about trust in the accuracy of the by-election results. As in previous waves of the survey, respondents were asked, "What level of trust do you have in the accuracy of the election results in your riding?" In the current wave of the survey, a subset of respondents (n = 589) was asked a similar question: "What level of trust do you have in the accuracy of the election results?," but it was prefaced by the following preamble: "At the end of a federal election, poll workers in each riding count ballots by hand and report the results to Elections Canada."
As the accompanying graph indicates, both formulations of the question yielded similar overall results. However, respondents who were asked the question without the preamble, and with "your riding" explicitly identified, were more likely to express a very high level of trust (63%) than those who were asked the version prefaced by the preamble but without "your riding" explicitly identified (55%). This result is consistent with the result from the previous by-election.
long description of Figure 28: Trust in Accuracy of Results
Q37a [LEFT]. What level of trust do you have in the accuracy of the election results in your riding? Is it ...? Base: n = 613: all respondents. SPLIT SAMPLE
Q37b [RIGHT]. At the end of a federal election, poll workers in each riding count ballots by hand and report the results to Elections Canada. What level of trust do you have in the accuracy of the election results? Is it ...? Base: n = 589. SPLIT SAMPLE
Q37a [LEFT]. What level of trust do you have in the accuracy of the election results in your riding? Is it ...? Base: n = 613: all respondents. SPLIT SAMPLE
Q37b [RIGHT]. At the end of a federal election, poll workers in each riding count ballots by hand and report the results to Elections Canada. What level of trust do you have in the accuracy of the election results? Is it ...? Base: n = 589. SPLIT SAMPLE
The following subgroups were less likely to trust the accuracy of the election results:Footnote 8
The following subgroups were more likely to have a very high level of trust in the accuracy of the election results:
| Age | Weighted n | Weighted % | Unweighted n | Unweighted % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 24 | 193 | 16 | 78 | 7 |
| 25 to 34 | 201 | 17 | 80 | 7 |
| 35 to 54 | 327 | 28 | 324 | 28 |
| 55+ | 453 | 39 | 678 | 58 |
| Refused* excluded from % column | 28 | 2 | 42 | 4 |
| Gender | Weighted n | Weighted % | Unweighted n | Unweighted % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Male | 593 | 50 | 493 | 41 |
| Female | 597 | 50 | 697 | 58 |
| Non-binary/trans | 3 | 0.3 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Don't know/Refused* excluded from % column | 10 | 0.7 | 9 | 0.7 |
| Employment Status | Weighted n | Weighted % | Unweighted n | Unweighted % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employed | 730 | 61 | 643 | 54 |
| Retired | 248 | 21 | 387 | 32 |
| Student | 114 | 9 | 53 | 4 |
| Unemployed and looking for work | 54 | 5 | 37 | 3 |
| Homemaker | 21 | 2 | 22 | 2 |
| Permanently unable to work | 20 | 2 | 24 | 2 |
| Temporarily not working | 22 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| Retired and working | 10 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Other | 38 | 3 | 39 | 3 |
| Education | Weighted n | Weighted % | Unweighted n | Unweighted % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than high school | 8 | 0.7 | 11 | 0.9 |
| Some high school | 23 | 2 | 28 | 2 |
| Completed high school | 209 | 18 | 185 | 6 |
| Some college | 77 | 6 | 70 | 6 |
| Completed college | 262 | 22 | 249 | 21 |
| Some university | 81 | 7 | 68 | 6 |
| Completed university | 299 | 25 | 312 | 26 |
| Post-graduate university | 227 | 19 | 257 | 22 |
| Other | 1 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Don't know | 3 | 0.2 | 5 | 0.4 |
| Refused* excluded from % column | 13 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Household Income | Weighted n | Weighted % | Unweighted n | Unweighted % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $30,000 | 113 | 10 | 132 | 13 |
| $30,000 to just under $60,000 | 230 | 21 | 252 | 24 |
| $60,000 to just under $90,000 | 215 | 20 | 201 | 19 |
| $90,000 to just under $110,000 | 128 | 12 | 129 | 12 |
| $110,000 and over | 272 | 25 | 258 | 25 |
| Don't know | 119 | 11 | 70 | 7 |
| Refused* excluded from % column | 125 | 10 | 160 | 13 |
Probability sampling was undertaken using random-digit dialling. To ensure that the sample was representative, and that the results reflected the distribution of electors by age and gender, the sample frame was based on Statistics Canada census data. Respondents were randomly selected using cellphone and landline samples in an effort to reach younger electors and to ensure cellphone-only households were included in the sampling frame. The landline sample was supplied by ASDE. The cellphone sample was supplied by Advanis (the firm responsible for data collection for this survey under subcontract to Phoenix SPI).
The same random-selection process was used for both the landline and the cellphone samples. In terms of the specific respondent in the household, interviewers asked to speak to an individual who was 18 years of age and older or a person in the household who had the most recent birthday. If that was not the initial individual answering the telephone, but another in the household, interviewers asked to speak to the eligible respondent. No selection procedures were used for the cellphone sample.
Once an appropriate adult was reached, voter eligibility was verified by the interviewer. To be eligible for the survey, respondents had to be Canadian citizens at least 18 years of age on polling day and to have had an address of ordinary residence in the electoral district from the first day of the revision period until election day.
To pre-test the questionnaire, respondents were first administered the survey and then asked a series of short, follow-up questions. The debrief following the survey provided an opportunity for respondents to offer feedback on the questionnaire. The follow-up questions were:
In total, 23 pre-test interviews were conducted by telephone on February 26, 2019. Respondents had the choice of participating in the official language of their choice. Ten pre-test interviews were completed in French and the rest in English. The pre-test interviews were digitally recorded and reviewed by Phoenix SPI team members and Elections Canada officials.
Overall, the questionnaire worked well, as was expected given that the questionnaire has been administered following previous by-elections. There was only one area of concern – a new question designed to capture electors' knowledge of the methods available to vote. The main challenge was eliciting responses without prompting respondents with so much information as to bias the results. After a careful review of the pre-test recordings, this question was restructured, and the briefing notes for interviewers were enhanced, to help interviewers correctly code responses. Specifically, a split-sample approach was used to test two different question formulations:
All fieldwork was conducted using computer-assisted telephone interviewing technology. In an effort to minimize non-response bias, those who declined to complete the survey over the telephone were given the option to complete the survey online. Twelve respondents agreed to complete the survey online after having voter eligibility verified by the interviewer. However, none of them completed the online version. In total, 1,202 electors were interviewed by telephone. Based on a sample of this size, the overall results can be considered accurate to within ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20. The results for each electoral riding can be considered accurate to within ±4.9%, 19 times out of 20.
The following specifications applied:
The data collection was conducted in accordance with the standards set out by industry associations as well as applicable federal legislation, including the Personal Information Protection and Electronic Documents Act, Canada's private-sector privacy law.
The following table presents information about the final call dispositions for this survey and calculation of the response rate:
| Landline | Cell | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total numbers attempted | 36,889 | 13,743 | 50,636 |
| Out of scope – Invalid | 9,226 | 154 | 9,380 |
| Unresolved (U) | 12,920 | 10,034 | 22,954 |
| No answer/answering machine | 12,920 | 10,034 | 22,954 |
| In-scope – Non-responding (IS) | 11,019 | 2,567 | 13,586 |
| Language barrier/illness/incapable | 506 | 88 | 594 |
| Call-back (respondent not available) | 38 | 9 | 47 |
| Refusal (household) | 9,085 | 1,880 | 10,965 |
| Refusal (respondent) | 1,390 | 590 | 1,980 |
| In scope – Responding units (R) | 3,724 | 988 | 4,712 |
| Completed interview | 1,165 | 37 | 1,202 |
| Terminate quota filled | 232 | 0 | 232 |
| NQ – Does not qualify | 2,141 | 377 | 2,518 |
| NQ – Citizenship | 8 | 25 | 33 |
| NQ – Age | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| NQ – Not in riding | 178 | 545 | 723 |
| Response rate | 13.5% | 7.3% | 11.4% |
The response rate formula is calculated as follows: [R = R/(U + IS + R)]. This means that the response rate is calculated as the number of responding units [R] divided by the number of unresolved [U] numbers plus in-scope [IS] non-responding households and individuals plus responding units [R].
To produce population estimates, the survey data were weighted to accurately reflect the age and gender distribution of eligible electors in the federal ridings. Specifically, the nested census populations of men and women residing in each federal electoral district who were 18–24, 25–34, 35–44, 45–64 and 65 or older (at the time of the research) were compiled as the weighting frame. The survey results were then compared to the same age and gender proportions to generate the survey weights. Any respondents who refused to provide their age were given a neutral weight so as not to skew the weighting proportions. Weights were based on 2016 Statistics Canada census data.
The table below shows the unweighted and weighted proportions for the variables used to create the weights:
| Base | Unweighted (%) n = 1,202 |
Weighted (%) n = 1,202 |
|---|---|---|
| Gender | ||
| Male | 41 | 50 |
| Female | 53 | 50 |
| Non-binary/trans | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Age | ||
| 18 to 24 | 7 | 16 |
| 25 to 34 | 7 | 17 |
| 35 to 44 | 12 | 17 |
| 45 to 64 | 42 | 30 |
| 65 or older | 33 | 21 |
Telephone surveys of the Canadian public often under-represent younger Canadians and overrepresent older Canadians. Previous by-election surveys have resulted in few 18-to-34-year-old electors in the final survey sample. To address this, the composition of the sample frame was adjusted to include a larger proportion of cellphones (because research shows younger Canadians are more likely to be reached on cellphones than on landlines). This strategy was successful when used for the surveys conducted following the June 18, 2018, by-election in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord and the December 3, 2018, by-election in Leeds–Grenville–Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes.
This was not the case for the York–Simcoe, Burnaby South or Outremont ridings because they are geographically larger. The cellphone sample could not be targeted enough to reach electors in these specific ridings. As a result, younger electors (those under 45 years of age) were under-represented in the final survey sample, and older electors (those 45 years of age and older) were overrepresented. The survey weights correct for this issue. This serves to reduce bias resulting from survey non-response should it be present, but it does not necessarily eliminate it. If electors under 45 who responded to the survey differ in their views on the issues addressed in the study from those under 45 who did not respond to the survey, the age bias (if there is one) might have been magnified. It is not known, however, whether there is any such difference.
PINTRO
Good afternoon/evening. My name is ... and I am calling from [...], a public opinion research company. Today we are conducting a study on behalf of Elections Canada. Please be assured that we are not selling or soliciting anything.
[IF ASKED]: The survey will take about 12 minutes to complete.
[IF ASKED ABOUT THE LEGITIMACY OF THE SURVEY]: If you would like to ensure that this survey is run by Elections Canada, you can call their toll-free number at 1-800-463-6868. Their hours of operation are Monday to Friday, from 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. (Eastern time).
You can also contact Alethea Woods, from Phoenix Strategic Perspectives, at 613-260-1700, ext. 223.
[IF ASKED ABOUT THE NATIONAL DO NOT CALL LIST]: Calls made for the purpose of market research, polls or surveys are not considered telemarketing calls. Organizations making these types of calls are not required to register with the National Do Not Call List. The National Do Not Call List toll-free telephone number is 1-866-580-3625.
[IF ASKED ABOUT ELECTIONS CANADA]: The toll-free telephone number for Elections Canada is 1-800-463-6868. Their hours of operation are Monday to Friday, from 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. (Eastern time).
I would like to speak to the person in your household who is a Canadian citizen, is at least 18 years old and who has had the most recent birthday. Would that be you?
IF PERSON SELECTED IS NOT AVAILABLE, ARRANGE TO CALL BACK.
IF PERSON SELECTED IS NOT AVAILABLE OVER INTERVIEW PERIOD, ASK FOR PERSON WITH NEXT MOST RECENT BIRTHDAY AND GO TO SCR1.
IF IN DOUBT, CONFIRM WHETHER RESPONDENT WOULD LIKE TO BE INTERVIEWED IN ENGLISH OR FRENCH.
PRIV
Please note that this call may be recorded for quality control or training purposes and all personal information collected will be held in strict confidence. Responses are used only for research and statistical purposes. The anonymized database of all responses may be shared with researchers who collaborate with Elections Canada.
May I confirm that you are a Canadian citizen?
IF NO: This survey must be completed by Canadian citizens. Would there be someone in your household who is a Canadian citizen? IF YES, ASK TO SPEAK TO THAT PERSON.
May I confirm that you were at least 18 years old on February 25, 2019?
IF NO: This survey must be completed by Canadian citizens who were at least 18 years old on February 25, 2019. Would there be someone in your household who was at least 18 years old on February 25, 2019? IF YES, ASK TO SPEAK TO THAT PERSON.
In what year were you born?
In what month and on what day were you born?
IF ASKED WHY: This is to verify whether you were eligible to vote in a federal election prior to the February 25, 2019, by-election.
RECORD THE TWO ANSWERS
SCR4 residence
Between January 14 and February 25, 2019, did you live in the federal riding of {INSERT RIDING NAME}
IF NO: Unfortunately, this survey must be completed by Canadian citizens who lived in this riding and were eligible to vote in the February 25, 2019, by-election. THANK AND DISCONTINUE.
IF ANSWERS SPONTANEOUSLY THAT LIVED IN RIDING FOR ONLY PART OF REVISION PERIOD: Unfortunately, this survey must be completed by Canadian citizens who lived in this riding for the entire revision period (January 14 through February 25, 2019) and were eligible to vote in the February 25, 2019, by-election. THANK AND DISCONTINUE.
IF UNSURE: REVIEW LIST OF COMMUNITIES IN THE RIDING WITH RESPONDENT TO DETERMINE WHETHER HE/SHE WAS A RESIDENT OF THE RIDING. IF SO, CONTINUE. IF NOT, DISCONTINUE USING LANGUAGE IN CODE 02. LIST OF COMMUNITIES ATTACHED.
IF UNSURE (2): INTERVIEWER TO USE ELECTIONS CANADA'S ONLINE VOTER INFORMATION SERVICE TO VERIFY RIDING BY POSTAL CODE. (http://www.elections.ca/scripts/vis/finded).
I would like to speak to someone who is a Canadian citizen and is at least 18 years old. Does that describe you?
IF PERSON IS NOT AVAILABLE, ARRANGE TO CALL BACK.
IF PERSON IS NOT AVAILABLE OVER INTERVIEW PERIOD, THANK AND DISCONTINUE.
IF IN DOUBT, CONFIRM WHETHER RESPONDENT WOULD LIKE TO BE INTERVIEWED IN ENGLISH OR FRENCH.
PRIV
Thank you. Please note that this call may be recorded for quality control or training purposes and all personal information collected will be held in strict confidence. Responses are used only for statistical purposes.
May I confirm that you are a Canadian citizen?
May I confirm that you were at least 18 years old on February 25, 2019?
In what year were you born?
SCR3B check eligibility 2015
In what month and on what day were you born?
IF ASKED WHY: This is to verify whether you were eligible to vote in a federal election prior to the February 25, 2019, by-election.
RECORD THE TWO ANSWERS.
IF NO: Unfortunately, this survey must be completed by Canadian citizens who lived in this riding and were eligible to vote in the February 25, 2019, by-election. THANK AND DISCONTINUE.
IF ANSWERS SPONTANEOUSLY THAT LIVED IN RIDING FOR ONLY PART OF REVISION PERIOD: Unfortunately, this survey must be completed by Canadian citizens who lived in this riding for the entire revision period (January 14 through February 25, 2019) and were eligible to vote in the February 25, 2019, by-election. THANK AND DISCONTINUE.
IF UNSURE: REVIEW LIST OF COMMUNITIES IN THE RIDING WITH RESPONDENT TO DETERMINE WHETHER HE/SHE WAS A RESIDENT OF THE RIDING. IF SO, CONTINUE. IF NOT, DISCONTINUE USING LANGUAGE IN CODE 02. LIST OF COMMUNITIES ATTACHED.
IF UNSURE (2): INTERVIEWER TO USE ELECTIONS CANADA'S ONLINE VOTER INFORMATION SERVICE TO VERIFY RIDING BY POSTAL CODE. (http://www.elections.ca/scripts/vis/finded).
Did you know that a federal by-election took place on February 25, 2019, in your riding?
DO NOT READ
IF NO: Confirm once again whether the respondent was living in the federal district (i.e. not just the city) using the geographic boundary description provided ("map").
Many people don't or can't vote for a variety of reasons. This is particularly true for by-elections, where voter turnout is often much lower than in general elections. Which of the following statement describes you?
Q2 IS 01 or 02 or 03
What is the main reason you did not vote?
DO NOT READ – CODE ONE ANSWER
Everyday life or health reasons
Political reasons
Electoral process–related reasons
All other reasons
Q3A missing ID
Which pieces of identification or documentation were you missing?
READ IF NECESSARY – CODE UP TO THREE ANSWERS
Were you out of town for work or personal reasons?
IF RESPONDENT ASKS WHY
Elections Canada is working to improve its services for electors who are out of town on voting days.
Q3C unplanned
Would you say that your travel was planned or unplanned?
IF RESPONDENT ASKS WHAT IS MEANT BY UNPLANNED
This means that the trip was not planned in advance – for example, you knew that you were leaving less than a week before you left.
IF RESPONDENT ASKS WHY WE WANT TO KNOW
Elections Canada is working to improve its services for electors who are out of town on voting days.
Q3D too busy forced choice
IF Q3 IS 01
I noted that you were too busy to vote. If you had to choose, which of the following most closely reflects your situation? Would it be ...
READ; ROTATE ITEMS
PQ4
During the campaign, did you receive a voter information card addressed to you personally and telling you where and when to vote?
DO NOT READ
Was your name correct on the card you received?
DO NOT READ
Q6 address on VIC
And was your address correct on the card?
DO NOT READ
Q7 ensure registration
What did you do to find out whether you were registered to vote in this by-election?
DO NOT READ. CODE UP TO THREE ANSWERS
INTERVIEWERS: IF RESPONDENT SAYS HE/SHE WENT ONLINE / CHECKED WEBSITE (CODE 04), ALSO PROBE FOR USE OF ONLINE VOTER REGISTRATION SERVICE (CODE 06).
Now, I would like to ask you a few questions about voting in the by-election ...
Q8 need to be registered
To the best of your knowledge, do electors need to be registered on the list of electors to vote in a Canadian federal election?
IF ASKED: This means that your name is on the list of electors.
DO NOT READ
IF Q8 IS 01
You are right, electors must be registered to vote in a federal election. If an elector is not registered on election day and wants to vote, can they register at the polling place and then vote immediately after?
DO NOT READ
IF Q8 IS 02 (No), 98 (Don't know) OR 99 (Refusal)
Actually, electors do need to be registered to vote in a federal election. If an elector is not registered on election day and wants to vote, can they register at the polling place and then vote immediately after?
DO NOT READ
SPLIT SAMPLE 50/50
Q10A register online a
To the best of your knowledge, could electors use an Online Voter Registration Service on Elections Canada's website to check, update or complete their voter registration during the last by-election?
DO NOT READ
To the best of your knowledge, is it possible for Canadian electors to check, update or complete their voter registration on Elections Canada's website?
DO NOT READ
SPLIT SAMPLE 50/50
Q11A ways to vote
To the best of your knowledge, what are the current ways that electors can vote in a federal election? DO NOT READ – SELECT ALL THAT APPLY (MULTIPLE MENTIONS). PROBE CAREFULLY TO AVOID SUGGESTING ANSWERS WHICH WOULD GIVE AWAY THE LIST. AFTER EACH ANSWER, PROBE, "Anything else?"
NOTES:
IF RESPONDENT SIMPLY SAYS "POLLING STATION," PROBE, "Could you please be more specific – about when would that be?"
IF RESPONDENT SAYS "PRIOR TO ELECTION DAY," ASK FOR CLARIFICATION: "Could you please be more specific?" AS 02, 03 and 04 CAN BE PRIOR TO ELECTION DAY, SEE CHART.
IF RESPONDENT SAYS "ONLINE," PROBE TO FIND OUT WHETHER THEY REFER TO CASTING A VOTE ONLINE OR TO ORDERING A BALLOT KIT ONLINE TO VOTE BY MAIL.
IF RESPONDENT ASKS FOR CLARIFICATION REGARDING ANSWER B "AT THE LOCAL ELECTIONS CANADA OFFICE," say, "Whenever there is an election, the official in charge of conducting the election in a riding opens an office. That office is open to the public for the duration of the campaign. Is it possible to vote there?"
| Way | When | How |
|---|---|---|
| On election day | On election day (Monday, February 25) | In person, at a polling station |
| Advance polls | A full week before the election, from Friday to Monday | In person, at a polling station |
| By mail | From the day the election is called until the Tuesday (6 days) before the election | By obtaining a special ballot kit:
|
| At a local Elections Canada office/office of the returning officer | From the day the election is called until the Tuesday (6 days) before the election | Electors can vote at any time during the campaign by going to an Elections Canada office. Common among those who are away for advance polls and polling day. |
| At home | From the day the election is called until the Tuesday (6 days) before the election | Elections Canada offers voting at home, in the presence of an election officer and a witness, for voters with a disability or an illness. |
| Mobile polls | From the day the election is called until the Tuesday (6 days) before the election | Mobile polls are set up to visit electors in difficult-to-reach locations, such as Canadian forces bases, prisons, long-term care facilities and very remote communities. |
If someone wants to vote in a federal election, how can they do so? Anything else?
DO NOT READ – SELECT ALL THAT APPLY (MULTIPLE MENTIONS). IF SOMEONE SAYS, "You go in person/At the polling station," CODE AS 01 AND ASK Q11C.
Now let's say someone wants to vote but is not available on election day, are there ways to cast a ballot ahead of time? IF SOMEONE JUST SAYS "Yes," ASK "OK, how would you do that"?
Which method did you use to vote? Was it ...
READ IN ORDER UNTIL RESPONDENT PROVIDES A RESPONSE – CODE ONE ANSWER ONLY.
IF RESPONDENT ASKS FOR CLARIFICATION AT ANSWER 03 "AT THE LOCAL ELECTIONS CANADA OFFICE."
Whenever there is an election, the official in charge of conducting the election in a riding opens an office. That office is open to the public for the duration of the campaign. Did you vote there before election day?
IF RESPONDENTS SAY THEY VOTED ONLINE, ASK FOR CLARIFICATION. VOTERS WITH A DISABILITY CAN REGISTER ONLINE TO RECEIVE A BALLOT IN THE MAIL, WHICH CAN BE COMPLETED IN THEIR HOME AND MAILED IN. THESE MENTIONS SHOULD BE CODED AS: 05 – AT HOME.
Overall, how easy was it to vote? Would you say it was ...?
SPLIT SAMPLE 50/50 BETWEEN Q14A and Q14B+Q15
Q14A proof id address
In order to vote at a federal election, must electors provide ...
RANDOM ROTATE Q14B WITH Q15 – PLEASE USE A FLAG VARIABLE FOR IDENTIFICATION OF 1st AND 2nd
To the best of your knowledge, do voters have to present a proof of IDENTITY in order to vote in a Canadian federal election?
DO NOT READ
RANDOM ROTATE Q15 WITH Q14B – PLEASE USE A FLAG VARIABLE FOR IDENTIFICATION OF 1st AND 2nd
To the best of your knowledge, do voters have to present a proof of ADDRESS in order to vote in a Canadian federal election?
DO NOT READ
Q16 easy proof id
Overall, how easy was it to meet the identification requirements? Would you say that it was ...?
READ SCALE. NOTE: THIS QUESTION REFERS TO RESPONDENT'S OWN EXPERIENCE.
Was the (answer underline at Q12: 01 polling station, 02 advance polls, 03 local Elections Canada office) at a convenient distance from your home?
DO NOT READ
Q18 difficulty reaching building
Did you have any difficulty reaching the ___________?
DO NOT READ. QUESTION REFERS TO DIFFICULTY GETTING TO THE BUILDING.
Q18B what was difficult
Could you briefly describe the main difficulty in reaching the (answers underlined at Q12: 01 polling station, 02 advance polling station or 03 local Elections Canada office)?
DO NOT READ – CODE UP TO THREE ANSWERS
Would you say that the building where you voted was ...?
READ SCALE
Once inside, were there enough signs to help you find where to go for voting?
DO NOT READ
IF Q4 IS 01
Did you bring your voter information card with you to the (answer underlined at Q12: 01 polling station, 02 advance polling station or 03 local Elections Canada office)?
DO NOT READ. CODE ONE ANSWER ONLY.
Do you remember approximately what time it was when you went to vote?
DO NOT READ
IF Q12 = 01 election day
READ ONLY IF NECESSARY; CODE ONLY ONE RESPONSE.
IF Q12 = 02 Advance polls
READ ONLY IF NECESSARY; CODE ONLY ONE RESPONSE.
IF Q12 = 03 (Local EC Office)
The local Elections Canada offices have different schedules on different days. Do you remember if you voted on a weekday or on a weekend?
DO NOT READ
IF RESPONDENT DOES NOT REMEMBER, CODE UNDER WEEKDAY.
READ ONLY IF NECESSARY; CODE ONLY ONE RESPONSE.
READ ONLY IF NECESSARY; CODE ONLY ONE RESPONSE.
To the best of your knowledge, how long did it take you to vote AT THE ... Q12: 01 polling station, 02 advance polling station or 03 local Elections Canada office? This does not include travel time.
DO NOT READ; RECORD TIME IN MINUTES.
Would you say that this was a reasonable amount of time?
DO NOT READ. QUESTION REFERS TO TIME SPENT TO VOTE.
Voters can choose to be served in either official language, English or French. In which language were you served?
DO NOT READ. CODE ONE ANSWER ONLY.
Were you satisfied with the official language in which you were served?
DO NOT READ
Overall, how satisfied were you with the services provided by Elections Canada staff when you voted? Would you say that they were ...?
READ. QUESTION REFERS TO SERVICES PROVIDED BY ELECTIONS CANADA STAFF PRESENT AT THE Q12: 01 polling station, 02 advance polling station or 03 local Elections Canada office.
IF Q27 IS 03 OR 04
Is there a specific reason why you were not satisfied with the services provided by Elections Canada staff? [open-ended]
[IF ASKED ABOUT COMPLAINT MECHANISMS]: If you would like to lodge a complaint with Elections Canada, you can call their toll-free number at 1-800-463-6868. Their hours of operation are Monday to Friday, from 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. (Eastern time). You can also use the contact form on their website, at www.elections.ca and click on Contact us in the right-hand corner.
I would now like to ask you some questions about the level of information that you received during this by-election ...
Overall, how well informed did you feel you were about how, when and where to vote? Would you say that you were ...?
READ SCALE
Q29A EC advertising
During the election period, did you see, hear or read any advertising or communications from Elections Canada about how, when and where to vote in the by-election?
DO NOT READ
Where did you see, hear or read advertising from Elections Canada?
DO NOT READ. SELECT ALL THAT APPLY (MULTIPLE MENTIONS). IF RESPONDENT SAYS "INTERNET," PROBE FOR SPECIFIC WEBSITES OR SOCIAL MEDIA. IF RESPONDENT SAYS "SOCIAL MEDIA," PROBE FOR SPECIFIC MEDIA.
Q30A to D advertising alternative
During the by-election campaign, have you seen or heard advertising from Elections Canada about where, when and how to vote:
Q30A
... on social media such as Facebook, Twitter or Instagram?
DO NOT READ
... when you were browsing or on a mobile application?
DO NOT READ. INCLUDES MENTIONS OF ONLINE NEWSPAPERS AND ARTICLES, "ON MY PHONE," WEATHER NETWORK.
... on the radio?
DO NOT READ
... in a local newspaper?
DO NOT READ
... in any other format?
DO NOT READ
Did you visit Elections Canada's website during the campaign?
DO NOT READ
Q32 satisfied EC website
Overall, how satisfied were you with the information on Elections Canada's website? Would you say that you were ...?
READ SCALE
Did you contact Elections Canada during the campaign?
DO NOT READ
Q34 satisfied contact EC
Overall, how satisfied were you with the information provided when you contacted Elections Canada? Would you say that you were ... ?
READ SCALE
Q35 satisfied voting
SPLIT SAMPLE
RANDOM ROTATE Q35A AND Q35B – PLEASE USE A FLAG VARIABLE FOR IDENTIFICATION OF 1st AND 2nd
Overall, how satisfied were you with your voting experience? Would you say that you were ...?
READ SCALE
Overall, how satisfied were you with your voting experience? Would you say that you were ...?
READ SCALE
PLEASE USE A FLAG VARIABLE FOR IDENTIFICATION OF THE SPLIT AND THE ORDER OF THE SPLIT (Q36 FIRST OR Q37 FIRST).
Thinking about the February 25, 2019, federal by-election, would you say that Elections Canada ran the election ...?
EMPHASIZE "ELECTIONS CANADA."
READ SCALE
Thinking about federal by-elections in general, would you say that Elections Canada runs elections ...?
EMPHASIZE "ELECTIONS CANADA."
READ SCALE
Is there a specific reason as to why you think Elections Canada runs elections unfairly?
DO NOT READ
What level of trust do you have in the accuracy of the election results in your riding? Is it ...?
READ SCALE
At the end of a federal election, poll workers in each riding count ballots by hand and report the results to Elections Canada. What level of trust do you have in the accuracy of the election results? Is it ...?
READ SCALE
Is there a specific reason as to why your level of trust is low when it comes to the accuracy of the election results in your riding?
DO NOT READ
Before ending, I would like to ask you a few questions about you and your household for statistical purposes only. Please be assured that your answers will remain completely confidential.
For the purposes of this survey, could you please indicate your gender?
DO NOT READ.
What language do you speak most often at home?
READ LIST
Could you please tell me your ethnic background? For example, White/Caucasian, Asian, African, Latin American, etc.
DO NOT READ. ACCEPT ONLY ONE REPLY; USE 97 FOR MIXED/MULTIPLE ETHNICITIES.
| Group | Includes |
|---|---|
| 01 White/Caucasian |
|
| 02 Chinese |
|
| 03 East Asian |
|
| 04 South Asian/East Indian |
|
| 05 South East Asian |
|
| 06 Filipino | |
| 07 Black (Africa, Caribbean) |
|
| 08 Latin American |
|
| 09 West Asian/North African/Arab |
|
| 10 Pacific Islands |
|
| 11 Indigenous |
|
| 97 Other visible minorities or mixed ethnicity; please specify | RECORD |
| 98 Don't know | |
| 99 Refusal |
SPLIT SAMPLE 50/50
Are you a member of a visible minority group?
DO NOT READ
IF THE RESPONDENT DOESN'T KNOW WHAT THAT MEANS: Under the Employment Equity Act, visible minorities are people, other than Indigenous peoples, who are not white or Caucasian.
Do you consider yourself to be a member of a visible minority group?
DO NOT READ
In what country were you born?
INTERVIEWER: Specify place of birth according to current boundaries.
United Kingdom includes England, Scotland, Wales, the Isle of Man, the Channel Islands and Northern Ireland
DO NOT READ – ONE ANSWER ONLY
S6 year arrived Canada
In what year did you come to live in Canada?
RECORD FOUR-DIGIT YEAR
DO NOT READ
S7 DEMOCRACY in home country
Thinking about your country of origin at the time that you left, would you say that this country was ...
READ LIST
What is the highest level of education that you have reached?
DO NOT READ – CODE ONE ONLY
How would you describe your current employment status?
IF RESPONDENT IS UNCLEAR ABOUT THE QUESTION
Are you, for example, employed, retired, in school, unable to work? This includes part-time and temporary occupations.
DO NOT READ SCALE. code up to 2 responses.
PROBE AS NEEDED TO CONFIRM WHETHER THE RESPONDENT IS EMPLOYED OR SELF-EMPLOYED.
How often do you have to limit your daily activities due to a physical condition, to pain or to a mental health issue?
READ LIST
Do you identify as having a disability?
DO NOT READ
What is your marital status? Are you ...
READ IN ORDER UNTIL RESPONDENT PROVIDES A RESPONSE – CODE ONE ANSWER ONLY.
Including yourself, how many people usually live in your household?
DO NOT READ
Are you the parent or guardian of any child under 5 years of age living at home with you?
DO NOT READ
Which of the following categories best corresponds to the total annual family income, before taxes, of all members in your household, for 2017?
EMPHASIZE FOCUS ON TOTAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME.
READ IN SEQUENCE – CODE ONE ANSWER ONLY.
Finally, we would like to know if you voted in the October 19, 2015, federal general election?
DO NOT READ
And to help us better understand how results vary by region, may I have your postal code?
PROBE FOR FIRST THREE DIGITS IF REFUSAL.
THNK
That completes the survey. Thank you for taking part. Your participation is appreciated.
THNK2
NOT ELIGIBLE TO COMPLETE SURVEY
Thank you for your cooperation! Based on the information you have provided, unfortunately you are not eligible to complete the remainder of this survey.
Footnote 1 The subgroup reporting is based on the aggregate variable, a computed variable that merges the split samples.
Footnote 2 Post-election surveys following previous by-elections (October 23, 2017; December 11, 2017; June 18, 2018; and December 3, 2018) also included this split-sample test.
Footnote 3 The subgroup reporting is based on the aggregate variable, a computed variable that merges the split samples.
Footnote 4 Exercise caution when interpreting these results due to the smaller sample size.
Footnote 5 The subgroup reporting is based on the aggregate variable, a computed variable that merges the split samples.
Footnote 6 By-election surveys were conducted following by-elections held on October 23, 2017; December 11, 2017; June 18, 2018; and December 3, 2018.
Footnote 7 The subgroup reporting is based on the aggregate variable, a computed variable that merges the split samples.
Footnote 8 The subgroup reporting is based on the aggregate variable, a computed variable that merges the split samples.